Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Chesham vs Farnham

Team pages: Chesham · Farnham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Chesham1.97

Farnham1.78

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Chesham Draw Farnham

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Chesham 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWDLLWLLL

Farnham 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWWDLW

Head-to-head

Chesham 1–0 Farnham (1 last)

Farnham1-2Chesham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesham 1466 · Farnham 1530

	Chesham	Draw	Farnham
Our model	42%	23%	35%
Market	42%	24%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Farnham (rating 1466 vs 1530).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesham	Farnham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.75

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +3’	2.15	3.75	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesham 1–0–0 Farnham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/09/23 England FA Cup Qualification	Farnham	1-2	Chesham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chesham	Farnham
Horsham	4-1 W	2-1 W
Billericay Town	1-2 L	2-4 L
Truro City	1-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chesham (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chesham

LWWDLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-2	0-2	10	3	L
10/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-5	0-5	3	3	L
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	0	L

Farnham

WLWWDWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	6-0	6	3	W
10/10	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	1-2	5	3	L
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Horsham England National League South	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-3	2-4	4	2	L
18/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesham vs Farnham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesham win (42%). Probabilities: Chesham 42%, draw 24%, Farnham 34%.

How many goals are expected in Chesham vs Farnham?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Chesham 1.97 · Farnham 1.78), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesham vs Farnham?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.