Football · England National League South · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Dorking Wanderers vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Dorking Wanderers · Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Dorking Wanderers1.89

Hemel Hempstead1.23

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Dorking Wanderers Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorking Wanderers 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Hemel Hempstead 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dorking Wanderers 4–1–1 Hemel Hempstead (6 last)

Dorking Wanderers2-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-0Dorking Wanderers
Hemel Hempstead1-7Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers3-2Hemel Hempstead
Dorking Wanderers2-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-2Dorking Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorking Wanderers 1560 · Hemel Hempstead 1452

	Dorking Wanderers	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	52%	25%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dorking Wanderers (rating 1560 vs 1452).
H2H favours Dorking Wanderers: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorking Wanderers	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.7	0.8 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:17 +5’	1.73	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorking Wanderers 4–1–1 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-1 HT 0-1	Hemel Hempstead
23/08/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-0 HT 1-0	Dorking Wanderers
25/11/24 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-7 HT 0-1	Dorking Wanderers
12/10/24 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	3-2 HT 2-0	Hemel Hempstead
12/03/22 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-1 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
06/11/21 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-2 HT 1-2	Dorking Wanderers

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	13	8	2	3	23	14	26
2	Ebbsfleet United	11	7	4	0	26	6	25
3	Truro City	12	7	3	2	21	11	24
4	Dag & Red	13	7	2	4	12	9	23
5	Salisbury FC	12	6	4	2	21	9	22
6	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
7	Tonbridge Angels	13	6	3	4	24	14	21
8	Dorking Wanderers	12	5	5	2	26	18	20
9	Farnham	12	6	2	4	23	16	20
10	Folkestone Invicta	13	5	4	4	20	14	19
11	Dover	12	5	4	3	19	18	19
12	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
13	Horsham	13	4	6	3	15	15	18
14	Torquay	12	4	5	3	19	16	17
15	Chelmsford	11	2	9	0	17	11	15
16	Hemel Hempstead	13	3	5	5	11	14	14
17	Farnborough	12	4	2	6	10	19	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	13	3	4	6	13	18	13
19	AFC Totton	13	4	1	8	12	24	13
20	Chesham	12	3	1	8	16	26	10
21	Braintree Town	12	3	1	8	18	33	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	12	2	2	8	14	30	8
23	Walton & Hersham	12	2	2	8	10	28	8
24	Slough	13	1	1	11	13	34	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorking Wanderers	Hemel Hempstead
Slough	3-1 W	2-0 W
AFC Totton	3-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dorking Wanderers (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorking Wanderers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Slough England National League South	0-1	3-1	6	4	W
10/10	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	2	D
26/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-2	4-3	3	5	W
12/09	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
08/09	Chelmsford England National League South	2-3	3-3	3	5	D
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
22/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
18/08	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-0	7	4	W

Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	AFC Totton England National League South	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
17/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
10/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorking Wanderers vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorking Wanderers win (52%). Probabilities: Dorking Wanderers 52%, draw 24%, Hemel Hempstead 24%.

How many goals are expected in Dorking Wanderers vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Dorking Wanderers 1.89 · Hemel Hempstead 1.23), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.