Football · England National League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Ebbsfleet United · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Ebbsfleet United1.52

Weston Super Mare0.9

1X2

51% 27% 22%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDWWW

Weston Super Mare 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWDLWWLD

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 3–3 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Ebbsfleet United1-3Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare1-0Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare0-2Ebbsfleet United
Weston Super Mare2-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-1Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1542 · Weston Super Mare 1532

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	52%	26%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.5	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.50

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.77

2 (+0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +10’	1.73	3.50	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 3–0–3 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	1-3 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare
18/11/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-0 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
18/03/17 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
08/10/16 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-2 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
25/03/16 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	2-1 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United
22/09/15 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-1 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	11	7	1	3	20	12	22
2	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
3	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
4	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
5	Dag & Red	11	6	2	3	10	7	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	5	3	0	14	3	18
7	Weston Super Mare	11	5	3	3	19	11	18
8	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	5	2	4	20	11	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
13	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
14	Hemel Hempstead	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	3	4	4	16	13	13
16	Maidenhead Utd	11	3	4	4	12	12	13
17	Horsham	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
18	Farnborough	10	3	2	5	8	17	11
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	11	3	1	7	8	21	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	11	1	1	9	11	29	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Weston Super Mare
AFC Totton	5-0 W	3-1 W
Hampton & Richmond	2-0 W	3-0 W
Folkestone Invicta	1-0 W	1-1 D
Hemel Hempstead	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

WLWDDWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
18/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-0	4	4	W

Weston Super Mare

WDLWDLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	9	1	D
26/09	Farnham England National League South	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
12/09	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (51%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 51%, draw 27%, Weston Super Mare 22%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Ebbsfleet United 1.52 · Weston Super Mare 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.