Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Torquay vs Maidstone Utd

Team pages: Torquay · Maidstone Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Torquay1.59

Maidstone Utd1.2

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Torquay Draw Maidstone Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Torquay 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDLWWDLW

Maidstone Utd 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Torquay 0–3–3 Maidstone Utd (6 last)

Torquay1-1Maidstone Utd
Torquay0-2Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd1-1Torquay
Maidstone Utd1-0Torquay
Torquay1-1Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd3-2Torquay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torquay 1517 · Maidstone Utd 1563

	Torquay	Draw	Maidstone Utd
Our model	45%	27%	27%
Market	47%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maidstone Utd (rating 1517 vs 1563).
H2H favours Maidstone Utd: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torquay	Maidstone Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.1	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.6	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +2’	1.91	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Torquay 0–3–3 Maidstone Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League South	Torquay	1-1 HT 1-1	Maidstone Utd
15/11/25 England FA Trophy	Torquay	0-2 HT 0-2	Maidstone Utd
16/08/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Torquay
01/02/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Torquay
12/11/24 England National League South	Torquay	1-1 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd
06/02/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	3-2 HT 1-1	Torquay

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torquay	Maidstone Utd
Dorking Wanderers	2-2 D	3-2 W
Maidenhead Utd	4-0 W	2-1 W
Folkestone Invicta	3-2 W	1-1 D
Hampton & Richmond	1-1 D	4-1 W
Weston Super Mare	0-0 D	1-0 W
Tonbridge Angels	2-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Maidstone Utd (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torquay

WDLDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Slough England National League South	0-0	5-1	6	4	W
26/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-3	5	2	L
12/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	8	D
08/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	4-0	2	9	W
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
29/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
15/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	9	W

Maidstone Utd

DWWWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
10/10	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
26/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
29/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torquay vs Maidstone Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torquay win (46%). Probabilities: Torquay 46%, draw 26%, Maidstone Utd 28%.

How many goals are expected in Torquay vs Maidstone Utd?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Torquay 1.59 · Maidstone Utd 1.2), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Torquay vs Maidstone Utd?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.