Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Chesham

Team pages: Dag & Red · Chesham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Dag & Red1.68

Chesham1.14

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Dag & Red Draw Chesham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDLLWDL

Chesham 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 2–0 Chesham (2 last)

Chesham0-1Dag & Red
Dag & Red3-1Chesham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1513 · Chesham 1452

	Dag & Red	Draw	Chesham
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1513 vs 1452).
H2H favours Dag & Red: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Chesham
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.9	2.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.5	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +21’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 2–0–0 Chesham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/02/26 England National League South	Chesham	0-1 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
25/11/25 England National League South	Dag & Red	3-1 HT 1-0	Chesham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Chesham
Farnborough	0-2 L	0-1 L
Dover	0-1 L	2-2 D
Horsham	1-1 D	4-1 W
Truro City	0-3 L	1-3 L
Walton & Hersham	2-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chesham (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

WWLWDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	2	4	L
10/10	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W

Chesham

LLWWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Chelmsford England National League South	0-5	0-5	3	3	L
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
15/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-2	2-3	8	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Chesham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (49%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 49%, draw 26%, Chesham 25%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Chesham?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Dag & Red 1.68 · Chesham 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Chesham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.