Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Horsham vs Walton & Hersham

Team pages: Horsham · Walton & Hersham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Horsham1.96

Walton & Hersham0.97

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Horsham Draw Walton & Hersham

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsham 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLDLWD

Walton & Hersham 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Horsham 1–0 Walton & Hersham (1 last)

Walton & Hersham0-3Horsham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsham 1498 · Walton & Hersham 1438

	Horsham	Draw	Walton & Hersham
Our model	59%	23%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Horsham (rating 1498 vs 1438).
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsham	Walton & Hersham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.6	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.82

2 (+1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +3’	1.48	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 1–0–0 Walton & Hersham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 England FA Cup Qualification	Walton & Hersham	0-3 HT 0-0	Horsham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsham	Walton & Hersham
Ebbsfleet United	2-2 D	0-2 L
Maidstone Utd	1-2 L	0-3 L
Chesham	1-4 L	0-2 L
Dag & Red	1-1 D	0-2 L
Braintree Town	2-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Horsham (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsham

WWLDDLDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
17/10	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
10/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	7	6	L
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
18/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	9	W

Walton & Hersham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
06/10	Braintree Town England National League South	1-1	3-1	2	5	W
26/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-3	1-5	4	2	L
29/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-2	1-4	7	3	L
22/08	Chesham England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
18/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
15/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-2	0-3	3	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsham win (60%). Probabilities: Horsham 60%, draw 23%, Walton & Hersham 17%.

How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Horsham 1.96 · Walton & Hersham 0.97), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsham vs Walton & Hersham?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.