Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Folkestone Invicta vs Farnborough

Team pages: Folkestone Invicta · Farnborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.76Total

Folkestone Invicta1.69

Farnborough1.07

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Folkestone Invicta Draw Farnborough

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Folkestone Invicta 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLDLLLDW

Farnborough 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Folkestone Invicta 1479 · Farnborough 1452

	Folkestone Invicta	Draw	Farnborough
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.76 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.8 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Folkestone Invicta	Farnborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.2 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.3	3.4 / 7.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.75

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +12’	1.73	3.75	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Folkestone Invicta

DWWLDLLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-1	5	5	W
10/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
26/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
12/09	Farnham England National League South	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Slough England National League South	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
22/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	1	D

Farnborough

LWDWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	2-0	7	4	W
10/10	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	0-4	8	2	L
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
31/08	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
22/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
19/08	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	0	W
15/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-2	0-2	11	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Folkestone Invicta vs Farnborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Folkestone Invicta win (51%). Probabilities: Folkestone Invicta 51%, draw 25%, Farnborough 24%.

How many goals are expected in Folkestone Invicta vs Farnborough?

The model expects 2.76 goals (Folkestone Invicta 1.69 · Farnborough 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Folkestone Invicta vs Farnborough?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.