Football · England National League South · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead Utd

Team pages: Ebbsfleet United · Maidenhead Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Ebbsfleet United1.91

Maidenhead Utd0.99

1X2

58% 23% 19%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Maidenhead Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WDDWDWWWWD

Maidenhead Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 4–2 Maidenhead Utd (6 last)

Maidenhead Utd1-3Ebbsfleet United
Maidenhead Utd2-3Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United3-0Maidenhead Utd
Ebbsfleet United0-2Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd2-1Ebbsfleet United
Maidenhead Utd0-1Ebbsfleet United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1581 · Maidenhead Utd 1460

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Maidenhead Utd
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	59%	22%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ebbsfleet United (rating 1581 vs 1460).
H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Maidenhead Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7.2	2.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.95

2 (+1)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +11’	1.53	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 4–0–2 Maidenhead Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 England FA Cup	Maidenhead Utd	1-3	Ebbsfleet United
17/03/26 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	2-3 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
31/01/26 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	3-0 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
26/04/25 England National League	Ebbsfleet United	0-2 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
24/09/24 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Ebbsfleet United
23/01/24 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	12	8	1	3	22	13	25
2	Ebbsfleet United	10	6	4	0	22	6	22
3	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
4	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
5	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
6	Tonbridge Angels	12	6	2	4	21	11	20
7	Dag & Red	12	6	2	4	10	9	20
8	Weston Super Mare	12	5	3	4	20	17	18
9	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Folkestone Invicta	12	4	4	4	18	14	16
13	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
14	Horsham	12	3	6	3	14	15	15
15	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
16	Hemel Hempstead	12	3	5	4	10	11	14
17	Farnborough	11	4	2	5	10	17	14
18	Maidenhead Utd	12	3	4	5	13	14	13
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	12	3	1	8	9	23	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	12	1	1	10	12	31	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Maidenhead Utd
AFC Totton	5-0 W	1-1 D
Tonbridge Angels	2-1 W	0-1 L
Hemel Hempstead	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

WDDWDWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Horsham England National League South	0-1	2-2	10	5	D
17/10	Weston Super Mare England National League South	4-0	6-1	10	5	W
13/10	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	5-0	5	5	W
10/10	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
06/10	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/09	Slough England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
26/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
12/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W

Maidenhead Utd

WDLDWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
10/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
18/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (58%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 58%, draw 23%, Maidenhead Utd 19%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Ebbsfleet United 1.91 · Maidenhead Utd 0.99), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.