Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Braintree Town vs Truro City

Team pages: Braintree Town · Truro City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Braintree Town1.16

Truro City1.92

1X2

22% 24% 54%

Braintree Town Draw Truro City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Braintree Town 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWWLLL

Truro City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDLWD

Head-to-head

Braintree Town 5–1–0 Truro City (6 last)

Truro City2-3Braintree Town
Truro City1-1Braintree Town
Braintree Town2-0Truro City
Truro City1-2Braintree Town
Braintree Town3-2Truro City
Truro City1-2Braintree Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Braintree Town 1473 · Truro City 1559

	Braintree Town	Draw	Truro City
Our model	22%	24%	54%
Market	22%	24%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1473 vs 1559).
H2H favours Braintree Town: 5-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Braintree Town	Truro City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	1.5 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.7 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.10

X3.80

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +7’	4.10	3.80	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Braintree Town 5–1–0 Truro City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League	Truro City	2-3 HT 1-1	Braintree Town
27/01/26 England National League Cup	Truro City	1-1 HT 0-0	Braintree Town
15/11/25 England National League	Braintree Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Truro City
27/01/24 England National League South	Truro City	1-2 HT 0-0	Braintree Town
12/08/23 England National League South	Braintree Town	3-2 HT 2-0	Truro City
21/04/18 England National League South	Truro City	1-2 HT 1-1	Braintree Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Braintree Town	Truro City
Walton & Hersham	1-3 L	1-1 D
Dorking Wanderers	3-4 L	0-1 L
Maidstone Utd	2-1 W	2-1 W
Chesham	3-2 W	3-1 W
Tonbridge Angels	0-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Truro City (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Braintree Town

LWLDLWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
26/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-4	6	5	L
15/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	3	L
12/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	Slough England National League South	1-1	2-1	11	8	W
31/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
29/08	Dover England National League South	1-2	3-3	3	4	D
22/08	Horsham England National League South	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
15/08	Chesham England National League South	2-1	3-2	4	3	W
08/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	3	2	L

Truro City

WDWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Farnham England National League South	2-0	2-2	7	2	D
26/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
15/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
12/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
05/09	Chesham England National League South	1-1	3-1	11	1	W
31/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
29/08	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	3-0	6	5	W
22/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	3	W
15/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
08/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Braintree Town vs Truro City?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Truro City win (54%). Probabilities: Braintree Town 22%, draw 24%, Truro City 54%.

How many goals are expected in Braintree Town vs Truro City?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Braintree Town 1.16 · Truro City 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Braintree Town vs Truro City?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.