Football · England National League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead Utd

Team pages: Maidstone Utd · Maidenhead Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Maidstone Utd1.48

Maidenhead Utd1.18

1X2

43% 27% 30%

Maidstone Utd Draw Maidenhead Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidstone Utd 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWLLW

Maidenhead Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLDWLDWL

Head-to-head

Maidstone Utd 1–5 Maidenhead Utd (6 last)

Maidenhead Utd2-1Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd0-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd2-1Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd3-2Maidenhead Utd
Maidstone Utd2-4Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd3-2Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidstone Utd 1529 · Maidenhead Utd 1493

	Maidstone Utd	Draw	Maidenhead Utd
Our model	43%	28%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Maidenhead Utd: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidstone Utd	Maidenhead Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:31 +3’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidstone Utd 1–0–5 Maidenhead Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Maidstone Utd
20/09/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Maidenhead Utd
18/03/23 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	2-1 HT 2-0	Maidstone Utd
26/11/22 England National League	Maidstone Utd	3-2 HT 2-1	Maidenhead Utd
15/01/19 England National League	Maidstone Utd	2-4 HT 1-3	Maidenhead Utd
25/08/18 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	3-2 HT 1-1	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	11	7	1	3	20	12	22
2	Salisbury FC	11	6	3	2	20	8	21
3	Billericay Town	11	6	3	2	25	14	21
4	Truro City	11	6	3	2	17	8	21
5	Dag & Red	11	6	2	3	10	7	20
6	Ebbsfleet United	8	5	3	0	14	3	18
7	Weston Super Mare	11	5	3	3	19	11	18
8	Dover	11	5	3	3	18	17	18
9	Tonbridge Angels	11	5	2	4	20	11	17
10	Dorking Wanderers	11	4	5	2	23	17	17
11	Farnham	11	5	2	4	17	16	17
12	Torquay	11	4	4	3	18	15	16
13	Chelmsford	10	2	8	0	14	8	14
14	Hemel Hempstead	11	3	5	3	10	10	14
15	Folkestone Invicta	11	3	4	4	16	13	13
16	Maidenhead Utd	11	3	4	4	12	12	13
17	Horsham	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
18	Farnborough	10	3	2	5	8	17	11
19	Chesham	11	3	1	7	16	24	10
20	Braintree Town	11	3	1	7	18	27	10
21	AFC Totton	11	3	1	7	8	21	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	11	2	2	7	11	26	8
23	Walton & Hersham	11	2	2	7	10	27	8
24	Slough	11	1	1	9	11	29	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidstone Utd	Maidenhead Utd
Tonbridge Angels	1-0 W	0-1 L
Dorking Wanderers	3-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maidstone Utd (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidstone Utd

WDWWWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	1	6	W
26/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
29/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W

Maidenhead Utd

DWDLDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	9	L
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
18/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidstone Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Maidstone Utd 43%, draw 27%, Maidenhead Utd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Maidstone Utd 1.48 · Maidenhead Utd 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidstone Utd vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.