Football · England National League South · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Farnborough vs Dag & Red
Team pages: Farnborough · Dag & Red
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.36Total
Farnborough0.96
Dag & Red1.4
1X2
Farnborough
Draw
Dag & Red
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Farnborough
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Dag & Red
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Farnborough
0–1–1
Dag & Red
(2 last)
- Farnborough2-3Dag & Red
- Dag & Red0-0Farnborough
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Farnborough 1441 · Dag & Red 1520
| Farnborough | Draw | Dag & Red | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 30% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1441 vs 1520).
- High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Farnborough | Dag & Red | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.6 / 7.3 | 3.7 / 6.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.5 / 0.2 | 3.3 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 0–1–1 Dag & Red
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 England National League South | Farnborough | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Dag & Red |
| 01/11/25 England National League South | Dag & Red | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Farnborough |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 12 | 22 |
| 2 | Salisbury FC | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 25 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Truro City | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 21 |
| 5 | Dag & Red | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 20 |
| 6 | Ebbsfleet United | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 18 |
| 7 | Weston Super Mare | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 11 | 18 |
| 8 | Dover | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 11 | 17 |
| 10 | Dorking Wanderers | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 23 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Farnham | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 16 | 17 |
| 12 | Torquay | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 16 |
| 13 | Chelmsford | 10 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 14 | 8 | 14 |
| 14 | Hemel Hempstead | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 15 | Folkestone Invicta | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 13 | 13 |
| 16 | Maidenhead Utd | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 12 | 13 |
| 17 | Horsham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 11 |
| 18 | Farnborough | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 17 | 11 |
| 19 | Chesham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 16 | 24 | 10 |
| 20 | Braintree Town | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 | 27 | 10 |
| 21 | AFC Totton | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 26 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 11 | 29 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Farnborough | Dag & Red |
|---|---|---|
| Walton & Hersham | 2-2 D | 2-0 W |
| Dover | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Hampton & Richmond | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Hemel Hempstead | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Farnborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 26/09 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 12/09 | Dover England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/09 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 19/08 | Chesham England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Dag & Red
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 26/09 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 12/09 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/09 | Dover England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 05/09 | Horsham England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Slough England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Torquay England National League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 18/08 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 14/08 | Farnham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Dag & Red?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Dag & Red win (47%). Probabilities: Farnborough 26%, draw 28%, Dag & Red 47%.
How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Dag & Red?
The model expects 2.36 goals (Farnborough 0.96 · Dag & Red 1.4), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Dag & Red?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.