Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chesham vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Chesham · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Chesham1.44

Chelmsford1.46

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Chesham Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Chesham 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Chelmsford 1-8-1 (W-D-L)

LDDDWDDDDD

Head-to-head

Chesham 0–2–2 Chelmsford (4 last)

Chesham0-2Chelmsford
Chelmsford2-1Chesham
Chelmsford1-1Chesham
Chesham2-2Chelmsford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesham 1494 · Chelmsford 1544

	Chesham	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1494 vs 1544).
H2H favours Chelmsford: 2-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesham	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +8’	2.45	3.40	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesham 0–2–2 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League South	Chesham	0-2 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
30/08/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	2-1 HT 2-0	Chesham
01/02/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 1-0	Chesham
21/01/25 England National League South	Chesham	2-2 HT 1-1	Chelmsford

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Truro City	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
5	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
6	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
7	Farnham	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	3	3	0	7	3	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
17	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Braintree Town	10	3	1	6	17	25	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	1	2	7	9	27	5
24	Slough	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chesham	Chelmsford
Maidenhead Utd	0-4 L	1-0 W
Horsham	4-1 W	0-0 D
Truro City	1-3 L	0-0 D
Weston Super Mare	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chesham

LLLWWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-4	5	5	L
12/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	4-1	6	11	W
08/09	Billericay Town England National League South	0-2	1-2	9	3	L
05/09	Truro City England National League South	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
31/08	Dover England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	2	D
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
15/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
08/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	0	L

Chelmsford

LDDDWDDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
12/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesham vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmsford win (37%). Probabilities: Chesham 36%, draw 27%, Chelmsford 37%.

How many goals are expected in Chesham vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Chesham 1.44 · Chelmsford 1.46), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesham vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.