Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Dag & Red · Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Dag & Red1.35

Hemel Hempstead0.69

1X2

53% 28% 19%

Dag & Red Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWDLLW

Hemel Hempstead 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLDDDW

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 3–1 Hemel Hempstead (4 last)

Hemel Hempstead1-0Dag & Red
Dag & Red2-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead0-3Dag & Red
Hemel Hempstead2-3Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1517 · Hemel Hempstead 1501

	Dag & Red	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	51%	31%	18%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dag & Red: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.7	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.7	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:17 +10’	1.65	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 3–0–1 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
25/08/25 England National League South	Dag & Red	2-1 HT 2-0	Hemel Hempstead
31/07/21 Club Friendly List	Hemel Hempstead	0-3 HT 0-1	Dag & Red
28/07/18 UK Friendlies	Hemel Hempstead	2-3 HT 0-3	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Hemel Hempstead
Weston Super Mare	0-1 L	1-3 L
Slough	1-0 W	2-0 W
Farnham	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

WWWWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
12/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W

Hemel Hempstead

DWLWLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-0	8	3	W
12/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	1-1	2	3	D
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
08/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (53%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 53%, draw 28%, Hemel Hempstead 19%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Dag & Red 1.35 · Hemel Hempstead 0.69), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.