Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Dover vs Dorking Wanderers

Team pages: Dover · Dorking Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Dover1.66

Dorking Wanderers1.99

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Dover Draw Dorking Wanderers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Dover 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLWWW

Dorking Wanderers 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWLWWDDDW

Head-to-head

Dover 0–1–1 Dorking Wanderers (2 last)

Dorking Wanderers2-0Dover
Dover2-2Dorking Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dover 1535 · Dorking Wanderers 1549

	Dover	Draw	Dorking Wanderers
Our model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dover	Dorking Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	1.2 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.7	2.1 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +17’	2.88	3.60	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 0–1–1 Dorking Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-0 HT 0-0	Dover
21/10/25 England National League South	Dover	2-2 HT 1-0	Dorking Wanderers

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dover	Dorking Wanderers
AFC Totton	2-0 W	3-0 W
Dag & Red	1-0 W	0-1 L
Maidenhead Utd	0-3 L	0-0 D
Braintree Town	3-3 D	4-3 W
Billericay Town	0-2 L	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dorking Wanderers (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dover

LWLWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
08/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	2	W
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
15/08	Slough England National League South	3-0	5-3	8	2	W
08/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-1	0-2	10	2	L

Dorking Wanderers

LDWLWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-2	4-3	3	5	W
12/09	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-2	8	8	D
08/09	Chelmsford England National League South	2-3	3-3	3	5	D
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
22/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
18/08	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
15/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
08/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dover vs Dorking Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dorking Wanderers win (45%). Probabilities: Dover 31%, draw 24%, Dorking Wanderers 45%.

How many goals are expected in Dover vs Dorking Wanderers?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Dover 1.66 · Dorking Wanderers 1.99), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dover vs Dorking Wanderers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.