Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Farnham vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Farnham · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Farnham1.55

Salisbury FC1.57

1X2

37% 26% 38%

Farnham Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnham 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWDWWD

Salisbury FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnham 1518 · Salisbury FC 1573

	Farnham	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Salisbury FC (rating 1518 vs 1573).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnham	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.8 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.5 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.59
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.77 ★
2	2.55 → 2.38▼	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +6’	2.30	3.50	2.55
12:31 +9’	2.45▲	3.50	2.38▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:34 +186’	2.55	3.77	2.38
16:56 +4’	2.59▲	3.77	2.35▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Truro City	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
5	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
6	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
7	Farnham	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	3	3	0	7	3	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
17	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Braintree Town	10	3	1	6	17	25	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	1	2	7	9	27	5
24	Slough	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnham	Salisbury FC
Truro City	2-2 D	1-0 W
Folkestone Invicta	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hemel Hempstead	1-1 D	1-2 L
Horsham	2-1 W	0-0 D
Billericay Town	2-4 L	1-0 W
Slough	1-0 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Salisbury FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Truro City England National League South	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
26/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	3-1	3-2	0	3	W
12/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	1	W
05/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
31/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	2-0	1	5	W
29/08	Horsham England National League South	2-1	2-1	2	4	W
22/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-3	2-4	4	2	L
18/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	1	W
14/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	2	L

Salisbury FC

WDLLWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	2-0	9	0	W
15/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
12/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
29/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
15/08	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	5-0	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnham vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Salisbury FC win (38%). Probabilities: Farnham 37%, draw 26%, Salisbury FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Farnham vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Farnham 1.55 · Salisbury FC 1.57), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnham vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.