Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Maidenhead Utd vs Tonbridge Angels

Team pages: Maidenhead Utd · Tonbridge Angels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Maidenhead Utd1.39

Tonbridge Angels1.09

1X2

43% 27% 29%

Maidenhead Utd Draw Tonbridge Angels

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidenhead Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDLDWLDW

Tonbridge Angels 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLDWWLDL

Head-to-head

Maidenhead Utd 1–1–0 Tonbridge Angels (2 last)

Tonbridge Angels0-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-1Tonbridge Angels

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidenhead Utd 1501 · Tonbridge Angels 1495

	Maidenhead Utd	Draw	Tonbridge Angels
Our model	42%	29%	28%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidenhead Utd	Tonbridge Angels
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.9	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.13
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.00▼	Pinn 3.19 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:23 +2’	1.95	3.50	3.20
12:23 +16’	2.05▲	3.50	3.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:22 +197’	2.14	3.32	3.24
14:15 +164’	2.13▼	3.40▲	3.19▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidenhead Utd 1–1–0 Tonbridge Angels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	0-1 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
21/10/25 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Tonbridge Angels

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Truro City	10	5	3	2	15	7	18
5	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
6	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
7	Farnham	10	5	2	3	16	14	17
8	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
9	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Ebbsfleet United	6	3	3	0	7	3	12
15	Folkestone Invicta	10	3	3	4	15	12	12
16	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
17	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
18	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
19	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Braintree Town	10	3	1	6	17	25	10
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Walton & Hersham	10	1	2	7	9	27	5
24	Slough	10	1	1	8	10	24	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidenhead Utd	Tonbridge Angels
Billericay Town	2-2 D	2-2 D
Torquay	0-4 L	1-2 L
Dover	3-0 W	1-0 W
Farnborough	1-1 D	4-0 W
Hemel Hempstead	1-0 W	1-1 D
Truro City	0-2 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidenhead Utd

LDWDLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Chesham England National League South	1-0	4-0	5	5	W
12/09	Billericay Town England National League South	1-1	2-2	10	2	D
08/09	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-4	2	9	L
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
18/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
08/08	Truro City England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L

Tonbridge Angels

WLWLDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
12/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
29/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
22/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
18/08	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
08/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidenhead Utd vs Tonbridge Angels?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidenhead Utd win (43%). Probabilities: Maidenhead Utd 43%, draw 27%, Tonbridge Angels 29%.

How many goals are expected in Maidenhead Utd vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Maidenhead Utd 1.39 · Tonbridge Angels 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidenhead Utd vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.