Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs Folkestone Invicta

Team pages: Weston Super Mare · Folkestone Invicta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Weston Super Mare1.63

Folkestone Invicta1.11

1X2

48% 27% 25%

Weston Super Mare Draw Folkestone Invicta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Weston Super Mare 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Folkestone Invicta 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1522 · Folkestone Invicta 1475

	Weston Super Mare	Draw	Folkestone Invicta
Our model	48%	27%	25%
Market	49%	26%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Weston Super Mare (rating 1522 vs 1475).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Weston Super Mare	Folkestone Invicta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	1.8 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.40

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +6’	1.85	3.40	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Weston Super Mare	Folkestone Invicta
Farnham	2-3 L	1-2 L
Maidstone Utd	0-1 L	1-1 D
Chelmsford	1-1 D	1-1 D
Hemel Hempstead	3-1 W	2-0 W
Torquay	0-0 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Weston Super Mare

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Farnham England National League South	1-3	2-3	5	3	L
12/09	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W

Folkestone Invicta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	1	L
26/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
12/09	Farnham England National League South	0-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/09	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-3	6	4	L
31/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
29/08	Slough England National League South	2-0	2-0	6	0	W
22/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	1	D
18/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
08/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	8	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs Folkestone Invicta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (48%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 48%, draw 27%, Folkestone Invicta 25%.

How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.63 · Folkestone Invicta 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs Folkestone Invicta?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.