Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Billericay Town vs Farnborough

Team pages: Billericay Town · Farnborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Billericay Town1.99

Farnborough1.19

1X2

55% 23% 22%

Billericay Town Draw Farnborough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Billericay Town 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDWDWW

Farnborough 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWLLLD

Head-to-head

Billericay Town 1–1 Farnborough (2 last)

Billericay Town2-3Farnborough
Farnborough0-2Billericay Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Billericay Town 1524 · Farnborough 1470

	Billericay Town	Draw	Farnborough
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	23%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Billericay Town (rating 1524 vs 1470).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Billericay Town	Farnborough
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	3.9 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:09 +15’	1.61	3.90	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Billericay Town 1–0–1 Farnborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/03/16 England Isthmian Premier Division	Billericay Town	2-3	Farnborough
15/02/16 England Isthmian Premier Division	Farnborough	0-2	Billericay Town

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Billericay Town	Farnborough
Braintree Town	3-2 W	2-0 W
Maidenhead Utd	2-2 D	1-1 D
Chesham	2-1 W	1-0 W
Tonbridge Angels	2-2 D	0-4 L
AFC Totton	0-1 L	6-1 W
Dover	2-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Billericay Town

WLWDLDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Torquay England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
15/09	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	3-2	9	3	W
12/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	2-2	6	2	D
08/09	Chesham England National League South	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
05/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-2	3-3	6	4	D
31/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-1	2-2	4	6	D
22/08	Farnham England National League South	3-1	4-2	2	2	W
15/08	AFC Totton England National League South	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/08	Dover England National League South	1-0	2-0	3	2	W

Farnborough

WWLWDWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-1	2-2	3	4	D
12/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	2	L
08/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
05/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-2	0-4	10	3	L
31/08	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
22/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
19/08	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	0	W
15/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-2	0-2	11	2	L
08/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
25/04	AFC Totton England National League South	3-1	6-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Billericay Town vs Farnborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Billericay Town win (55%). Probabilities: Billericay Town 55%, draw 23%, Farnborough 22%.

How many goals are expected in Billericay Town vs Farnborough?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Billericay Town 1.99 · Farnborough 1.19), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Billericay Town vs Farnborough?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.