Football · England National League South · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Horsham vs Maidstone Utd

Team pages: Horsham · Maidstone Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Horsham1.06

Maidstone Utd1.37

1X2

29% 28% 44%

Horsham Draw Maidstone Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsham 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWWLDDLD

Maidstone Utd 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWLL

Head-to-head

Horsham 3–1–0 Maidstone Utd (4 last)

Horsham0-0Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd0-3Horsham
Horsham2-1Maidstone Utd
Horsham2-0Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsham 1501 · Maidstone Utd 1521

	Horsham	Draw	Maidstone Utd
Our model	28%	30%	43%
Market	30%	26%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Horsham: 3-1-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsham	Maidstone Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5.5	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.40

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +8’	3.00	3.40	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 3–1–0 Maidstone Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League South	Horsham	0-0 HT 0-0	Maidstone Utd
06/09/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Horsham
16/11/24 England FA Trophy	Horsham	2-1 HT 1-0	Maidstone Utd
22/07/23 Club Friendly List	Horsham	2-0 HT 0-0	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
2	Dag & Red	10	6	1	3	10	7	19
3	Salisbury FC	10	5	3	2	18	7	18
4	Billericay Town	10	5	3	2	21	14	18
5	Weston Super Mare	10	5	2	3	18	10	17
6	Truro City	9	5	2	2	13	5	17
7	Dover	10	5	2	3	17	16	17
8	Dorking Wanderers	10	4	4	2	22	16	16
9	Farnham	9	5	1	3	14	12	16
10	Tonbridge Angels	10	4	2	4	19	11	14
11	Maidenhead Utd	10	3	4	3	12	11	13
12	Hemel Hempstead	10	3	4	3	10	10	13
13	Torquay	10	3	4	3	13	14	13
14	Folkestone Invicta	9	3	3	3	15	11	12
15	Chelmsford	9	1	8	0	9	8	11
16	Horsham	9	2	5	2	9	10	11
17	Farnborough	9	3	2	4	8	13	11
18	Chesham	10	3	1	6	16	19	10
19	Braintree Town	9	3	1	5	16	22	10
20	AFC Totton	9	3	1	5	8	15	10
21	Ebbsfleet United	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
22	Hampton & Richmond	10	2	2	6	11	24	8
23	Slough	9	1	0	8	9	23	3
24	Walton & Hersham	9	0	2	7	6	26	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsham	Maidstone Utd
Folkestone Invicta	1-1 D	1-1 D
Braintree Town	2-1 W	1-2 L
Hampton & Richmond	2-0 W	4-1 W
Salisbury FC	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maidstone Utd (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsham

WDDWWLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
12/09	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	2	11	L
08/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	4	D
05/09	Dag & Red England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
18/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	9	W
15/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	1-0	3-2	5	6	W

Maidstone Utd

LWDWWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Truro City England National League South	1-0	1-2	6	2	L
12/09	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
08/09	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
29/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsham vs Maidstone Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maidstone Utd win (44%). Probabilities: Horsham 29%, draw 28%, Maidstone Utd 44%.

How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Maidstone Utd?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Horsham 1.06 · Maidstone Utd 1.37), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsham vs Maidstone Utd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.