Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Maidenhead Utd vs Torquay

Team pages: Maidenhead Utd · Torquay

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.29Total

Maidenhead Utd1.14

Torquay1.14

1X2

35% 29% 35%

Maidenhead Utd Draw Torquay

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidenhead Utd 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWDLDW

Torquay 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDWDLDLW

Head-to-head

Maidenhead Utd 1–2–3 Torquay (6 last)

Torquay1-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-2Torquay
Maidenhead Utd1-3Torquay
Torquay2-3Maidenhead Utd
Torquay1-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd3-4Torquay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidenhead Utd 1474 · Torquay 1540

	Maidenhead Utd	Draw	Torquay
Our model	34%	31%	34%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1474 vs 1540).
H2H favours Torquay: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidenhead Utd	Torquay
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.9	3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.25

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.8%

Time*	1	X	2
18:11 +12’	2.50	3.25	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidenhead Utd 1–2–3 Torquay

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League South	Torquay	1-1 HT 1-0	Maidenhead Utd
08/11/25 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	1-2 HT 0-1	Torquay
10/04/23 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	1-3 HT 0-1	Torquay
04/10/22 England National League	Torquay	2-3 HT 2-2	Maidenhead Utd
30/04/22 England National League	Torquay	1-1 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
04/09/21 England National League	Maidenhead Utd	3-4 HT 0-4	Torquay

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidenhead Utd	Torquay
Dorking Wanderers	0-0 D	4-2 W
AFC Hornchurch	0-0 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Torquay (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidenhead Utd

WDLLDWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Dover England National League South	1-0	3-0	13	5	W
31/08	AFC Totton England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
29/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
18/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
08/08	Truro City England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
29/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
25/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/04	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W

Torquay

WWDDWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
29/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
15/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
08/08	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
02/05	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-0	4-2	7	7	W
25/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	2-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidenhead Utd vs Torquay?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidenhead Utd win (35%). Probabilities: Maidenhead Utd 35%, draw 29%, Torquay 35%.

How many goals are expected in Maidenhead Utd vs Torquay?

The model expects 2.29 goals (Maidenhead Utd 1.14 · Torquay 1.14), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidenhead Utd vs Torquay?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.