Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Horsham vs Chesham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Horsham1.48
Chesham1.32
1X2
Horsham
Draw
Chesham
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Horsham
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Chesham
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Horsham
0–1–1
Chesham
(2 last)
- Horsham1-2Chesham
- Chesham0-0Horsham
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Horsham 1483 · Chesham 1474
| Horsham | Draw | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Horsham | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.8 | 2.1 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 0–1–1 Chesham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 England National League South | Horsham | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Chesham |
| 19/08/25 England National League South | Chesham | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Horsham |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Weston Super Mare | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Tonbridge Angels | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Truro City | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Folkestone Invicta | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Dorking Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Torquay | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Salisbury FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
| 10 | Billericay Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Dover | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 12 | Horsham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Farnham | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | AFC Totton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Farnborough | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 10 |
| 16 | Chelmsford | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Hemel Hempstead | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 19 | Chesham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 7 |
| 20 | Braintree Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Slough | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Horsham | Chesham |
|---|---|---|
| Braintree Town | 2-1 W | 2-3 L |
| Weston Super Mare | 0-1 L | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Horsham (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Horsham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Folkestone Invicta England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 05/09 | Dag & Red England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Farnham England National League South |
1-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 18/08 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 9 | W |
| 15/08 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
| 08/08 | Torquay England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 25/04 | Chippenham Town England National League South |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 14/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 7 | L |
Chesham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Truro City England National League South |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | Dover England National League South |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
3-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 22/08 | Walton & Hersham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 15/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Dover England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Horsham vs Chesham?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsham win (40%). Probabilities: Horsham 40%, draw 27%, Chesham 33%.
How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Chesham?
The model expects 2.8 goals (Horsham 1.48 · Chesham 1.32), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Horsham vs Chesham?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.