Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Ebbsfleet United · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.85Total

Ebbsfleet United1.68

Salisbury FC1.17

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Salisbury FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 1–1–0 Salisbury FC (2 last)

Salisbury FC1-1Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United2-0Salisbury FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1548 · Salisbury FC 1523

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	48%	26%	26%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +4’	1.83	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 1–1–0 Salisbury FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England National League South	Salisbury FC	1-1 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United
25/10/25 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-0 HT 0-0	Salisbury FC

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	19
2	Dag & Red	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
3	Weston Super Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
9	Salisbury FC	7	3	2	2	14	6	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
13	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
16	Chelmsford	7	1	6	0	8	7	9
17	Hemel Hempstead	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
18	Maidenhead Utd	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
19	Chesham	8	2	1	5	12	14	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
23	Slough	7	0	0	7	8	21	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Salisbury FC
Hemel Hempstead	0-0 D	1-2 L
Hampton & Richmond	4-0 W	5-0 W
Tonbridge Angels	2-1 W	2-3 L
Slough	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
18/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
11/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
06/04	Dover England National League South	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
03/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
28/03	Slough England National League South	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
21/03	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	4	L
17/03	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	3-2	6	6	W

Salisbury FC

LWDWDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Slough England National League South	2-1	5-1	3	3	W
05/09	Chelmsford England National League South	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
29/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
15/08	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
25/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
18/04	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
11/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	2-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (48%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 48%, draw 26%, Salisbury FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 2.85 goals (Ebbsfleet United 1.68 · Salisbury FC 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.