Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Torquay vs Dorking Wanderers

Team pages: Torquay · Dorking Wanderers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Torquay2.07

Dorking Wanderers1.56

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Torquay Draw Dorking Wanderers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Torquay 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLDLWW

Dorking Wanderers 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLWWDD

Head-to-head

Torquay 3–1–2 Dorking Wanderers (6 last)

Torquay4-2Dorking Wanderers
Torquay2-2Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers3-1Torquay
Dorking Wanderers0-1Torquay
Torquay1-0Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers3-2Torquay

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torquay 1563 · Dorking Wanderers 1511

	Torquay	Draw	Dorking Wanderers
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	48%	24%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1563 vs 1511).
H2H favours Torquay: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torquay	Dorking Wanderers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1.1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5.2	3 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.4	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:25 +13’	1.85	3.70	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Torquay 3–1–2 Dorking Wanderers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 England National League South	Torquay	4-2 HT 2-0	Dorking Wanderers
24/03/26 England National League South	Torquay	2-2 HT 0-1	Dorking Wanderers
25/10/25 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	3-1 HT 3-0	Torquay
15/03/25 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	0-1 HT 0-0	Torquay
24/08/24 England National League South	Torquay	1-0 HT 0-0	Dorking Wanderers
21/02/23 England National League	Dorking Wanderers	3-2 HT 1-1	Torquay

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	19
2	Dag & Red	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
3	Weston Super Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
9	Salisbury FC	7	3	2	2	14	6	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
13	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
16	Chelmsford	7	1	6	0	8	7	9
17	Hemel Hempstead	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
18	Maidenhead Utd	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
19	Chesham	8	2	1	5	12	14	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
23	Slough	7	0	0	7	8	21	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torquay	Dorking Wanderers
Maidenhead Utd	4-0 W	0-0 D
Dag & Red	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Torquay

WDDWDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	4-0	2	9	W
05/09	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
31/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
29/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
22/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	9	7	D
15/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
08/08	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
09/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	1-1	2-2	7	2	D
02/05	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	2-0	4-2	7	7	W

Dorking Wanderers

WLLDWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Chelmsford England National League South	2-3	3-3	3	5	D
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
22/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
18/08	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
15/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
08/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
02/05	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-4	8	7	L
29/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	2-0	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torquay vs Dorking Wanderers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torquay win (48%). Probabilities: Torquay 48%, draw 24%, Dorking Wanderers 28%.

How many goals are expected in Torquay vs Dorking Wanderers?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Torquay 2.07 · Dorking Wanderers 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Torquay vs Dorking Wanderers?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.