Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs Dag & Red

Team pages: Weston Super Mare · Dag & Red

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Weston Super Mare1.23

Dag & Red0.94

1X2

43% 29% 28%

Weston Super Mare Draw Dag & Red

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Weston Super Mare 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLWDLW

Dag & Red 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWLWDL

Head-to-head

Weston Super Mare 1–1–0 Dag & Red (2 last)

Dag & Red0-0Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare3-0Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1519 · Dag & Red 1501

	Weston Super Mare	Draw	Dag & Red
Our model	42%	32%	27%
Market	44%	28%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Weston Super Mare	Dag & Red
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.5	3.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	3.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.25

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +5’	2.05	3.25	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Weston Super Mare 1–1–0 Dag & Red

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League South	Dag & Red	0-0 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
30/08/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	3-0 HT 0-0	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	19
2	Dag & Red	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
3	Weston Super Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
9	Salisbury FC	7	3	2	2	14	6	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
13	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
16	Chelmsford	7	1	6	0	8	7	9
17	Hemel Hempstead	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
18	Maidenhead Utd	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
19	Chesham	8	2	1	5	12	14	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
23	Slough	7	0	0	7	8	21	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Weston Super Mare	Dag & Red
Dover	2-3 L	0-1 L
Torquay	0-0 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Weston Super Mare

DLWWDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-1	9	4	W
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
28/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D

Dag & Red

DLWWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Dover England National League South	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/04	Slough England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
18/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs Dag & Red?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (43%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 43%, draw 29%, Dag & Red 28%.

How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs Dag & Red?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.23 · Dag & Red 0.94), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs Dag & Red?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.