Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge Angels

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · Tonbridge Angels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

Hemel Hempstead1.43

Tonbridge Angels1.26

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Hemel Hempstead Draw Tonbridge Angels

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hemel Hempstead 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLWLLDD

Tonbridge Angels 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLWLDWWL

Head-to-head

Hemel Hempstead 4–1–1 Tonbridge Angels (6 last)

Hemel Hempstead1-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels1-3Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels2-0Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead2-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels3-3Hemel Hempstead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1517 · Tonbridge Angels 1529

	Hemel Hempstead	Draw	Tonbridge Angels
Our model	40%	28%	32%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hemel Hempstead: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hemel Hempstead	Tonbridge Angels
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:12 +5’	2.20	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 4–1–1 Tonbridge Angels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-0 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
29/11/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-3 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
01/03/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-0 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
23/11/24 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	2-0 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
13/01/24 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	2-0 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
07/10/23 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	3-3 HT 2-2	Hemel Hempstead

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	19
2	Dag & Red	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
3	Weston Super Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
9	Salisbury FC	7	3	2	2	14	6	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
13	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
16	Chelmsford	7	1	6	0	8	7	9
17	Hemel Hempstead	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
18	Maidenhead Utd	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
19	Chesham	8	2	1	5	12	14	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
23	Slough	7	0	0	7	8	21	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hemel Hempstead

DDDWLWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
08/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
28/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
25/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D

Tonbridge Angels

WLWLWLDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
29/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
22/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
18/08	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
08/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-0	4	2	W
25/04	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
18/04	Farnborough England National League South	3-1	6-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge Angels?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hemel Hempstead win (40%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 40%, draw 28%, Tonbridge Angels 32%.

How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model expects 2.69 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.43 · Tonbridge Angels 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.