Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs AFC Totton

Team pages: Weston Super Mare · AFC Totton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Weston Super Mare1.71

AFC Totton1.07

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Weston Super Mare Draw AFC Totton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Weston Super Mare 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWWDLWDL

AFC Totton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWLLDW

Head-to-head

Weston Super Mare 1–1 AFC Totton (2 last)

Weston Super Mare1-0AFC Totton
AFC Totton3-1Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1523 · AFC Totton 1514

	Weston Super Mare	Draw	AFC Totton
Our model	51%	26%	22%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Weston Super Mare	AFC Totton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.1	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	4.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +5’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Weston Super Mare 1–0–1 AFC Totton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-0 HT 1-0	AFC Totton
04/10/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	3-1 HT 1-1	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Weston Super Mare	AFC Totton
Hampton & Richmond	3-0 W	4-1 W
Chesham	3-0 W	0-4 L
Dorking Wanderers	1-1 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Weston Super Mare (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Weston Super Mare

DDLWWDLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
28/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D

AFC Totton

WWWLWWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-1	7	7	W
31/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	6	6	D
29/08	Chesham England National League South	0-3	0-4	6	4	L
18/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/04	Farnborough England National League South	1-3	1-6	5	5	L
18/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-2	3-2	7	2	W
14/04	Bath City England National League South	2-1	2-1	9	5	W
11/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	2-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs AFC Totton?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (52%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 52%, draw 25%, AFC Totton 23%.

How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs AFC Totton?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.71 · AFC Totton 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs AFC Totton?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.