Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Farnborough vs Dover
Team pages: Farnborough · Dover
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.53Total
Farnborough2.06
Dover1.46
1X2
Farnborough
Draw
Dover
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Farnborough
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Dover
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Farnborough
5–1
Dover
(6 last)
- Dover1-3Farnborough
- Farnborough4-1Dover
- Farnborough1-2Dover
- Dover1-3Farnborough
- Farnborough4-0Dover
- Farnborough3-0Dover
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Farnborough 1505 · Dover 1448
| Farnborough | Draw | Dover | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Farnborough (rating 1505 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Farnborough: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Farnborough | Dover | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1.1 | 0.9 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.9 / 6.9 | 2.9 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.1 | 2.6 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 5–0–1 Dover
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 England National League South | Dover | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Farnborough |
| 13/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification | Farnborough | 4-1 | Dover |
| 06/09/25 England National League South | Farnborough | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Dover |
| 23/03/24 England National League South | Dover | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Farnborough |
| 28/10/23 England National League South | Farnborough | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Dover |
| 22/04/23 England National League South | Farnborough | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Dover |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 19 |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 16 |
| 3 | Weston Super Mare | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 7 | 14 |
| 4 | Tonbridge Angels | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 8 | 13 |
| 5 | Truro City | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 6 | Folkestone Invicta | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Dorking Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 11 | 12 |
| 8 | Torquay | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| 9 | Salisbury FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 6 | 11 |
| 10 | Billericay Town | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 10 | 11 |
| 11 | Dover | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | 11 |
| 12 | Horsham | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| 13 | Farnham | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| 14 | AFC Totton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| 15 | Farnborough | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 10 |
| 16 | Chelmsford | 7 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 9 |
| 17 | Hemel Hempstead | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 9 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 9 |
| 19 | Chesham | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 14 | 7 |
| 20 | Braintree Town | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 7 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 7 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Slough | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 8 | 21 | 0 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Farnborough | Dover |
|---|---|---|
| Tonbridge Angels | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Braintree Town | 2-0 W | 3-3 D |
| Maidenhead Utd | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Chesham | 1-0 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Farnborough (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Farnborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-2 | 0-4 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 31/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 19/08 | Chesham England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 15/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Totton England National League South |
3-1 | 6-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 18/04 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
1-3 | 1-6 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Dover England National League South |
2-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
Dover
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Dag & Red England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 05/09 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 31/08 | Chesham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Slough England National League South |
3-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Chesham England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Dover?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Farnborough win (50%). Probabilities: Farnborough 50%, draw 24%, Dover 26%.
How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Dover?
The model expects 3.53 goals (Farnborough 2.06 · Dover 1.46), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Dover?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.