Football · England National League South · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Hampton & Richmond · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Hampton & Richmond1.1

Chelmsford1.74

1X2

23% 25% 52%

Hampton & Richmond Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hampton & Richmond 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDLLW

Chelmsford 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDDDWDDD

Head-to-head

Hampton & Richmond 1–2–3 Chelmsford (6 last)

Hampton & Richmond1-3Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-0Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond3-2Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-1Hampton & Richmond
Hampton & Richmond0-1Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-1Hampton & Richmond

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hampton & Richmond 1459 · Chelmsford 1519

	Hampton & Richmond	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	23%	26%	51%
Market	24%	24%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chelmsford (rating 1459 vs 1519).
H2H favours Chelmsford: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hampton & Richmond	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.3	1.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.80

X3.70

21.73

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
10:37 +2’	3.80	3.70	1.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hampton & Richmond 1–2–3 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England National League South	Hampton & Richmond	1-3 HT 0-1	Chelmsford
08/11/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-0 HT 1-0	Hampton & Richmond
14/12/24 England National League South	Hampton & Richmond	3-2 HT 3-1	Chelmsford
17/08/24 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 0-1	Hampton & Richmond
27/01/24 England National League South	Hampton & Richmond	0-1 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
12/08/23 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 1-1	Hampton & Richmond

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	8	6	1	1	16	7	19
2	Dag & Red	8	5	1	2	9	6	16
3	Weston Super Mare	8	4	2	2	15	7	14
4	Tonbridge Angels	8	4	1	3	17	8	13
5	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
6	Folkestone Invicta	7	3	3	1	14	7	12
7	Dorking Wanderers	8	3	3	2	16	11	12
8	Torquay	8	3	3	2	11	9	12
9	Salisbury FC	7	3	2	2	14	6	11
10	Billericay Town	7	3	2	2	13	10	11
11	Dover	8	3	2	3	14	16	11
12	Horsham	7	2	4	1	8	6	10
13	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
14	AFC Totton	7	3	1	3	8	12	10
15	Farnborough	7	3	1	3	6	10	10
16	Chelmsford	7	1	6	0	8	7	9
17	Hemel Hempstead	8	2	3	3	7	9	9
18	Maidenhead Utd	8	2	3	3	6	9	9
19	Chesham	8	2	1	5	12	14	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	8	2	1	5	10	22	7
22	Ebbsfleet United	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
23	Slough	7	0	0	7	8	21	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hampton & Richmond	Chelmsford
Weston Super Mare	0-3 L	1-1 D
Salisbury FC	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hampton & Richmond

LWLLLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Farnborough England National League South	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
05/09	AFC Totton England National League South	0-3	1-4	1	7	L
31/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
29/08	Torquay England National League South	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
22/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	5-3	5	2	W
18/08	Horsham England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	9	L
15/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
08/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	0-5	9	4	L
25/04	Enfield Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
18/04	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-3	0-4	1	4	L

Chelmsford

DWLDDDWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	3-2	3-3	2	5	D
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	2-1	3-3	6	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chelmsford win (52%). Probabilities: Hampton & Richmond 23%, draw 25%, Chelmsford 52%.

How many goals are expected in Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Hampton & Richmond 1.1 · Chelmsford 1.74), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hampton & Richmond vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.