Football · England National League South · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: Dover vs Maidenhead Utd
Team pages: Dover · Maidenhead Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.52Total
Dover1.04
Maidenhead Utd1.48
1X2
Dover
Draw
Maidenhead Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Dover
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Maidenhead Utd
2-5-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dover
1–5
Maidenhead Utd
(6 last)
- Maidenhead Utd1-0Dover
- Dover1-2Maidenhead Utd
- Dover0-1Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd2-0Dover
- Dover3-4Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd1-2Dover
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dover 1475 · Maidenhead Utd 1448
| Dover | Draw | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Maidenhead Utd: 5-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dover | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.3 | 0.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.8 / 0.1 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 1–0–5 Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England National League South | Maidenhead Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Dover |
| 30/08/25 England National League South | Dover | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 09/04/22 England National League | Dover | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 28/08/21 England National League | Maidenhead Utd | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Dover |
| 26/11/19 England National League | Dover | 3-4 HT 2-3 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 24/09/19 England National League | Maidenhead Utd | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Dover |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dag & Red | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Maidstone Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Folkestone Invicta | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Weston Super Mare | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 11 |
| 5 | Tonbridge Angels | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Truro City | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Dorking Wanderers | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Farnborough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 9 | Farnham | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 10 | Horsham | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Dover | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 13 | 8 |
| 12 | Salisbury FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
| 13 | Billericay Town | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 7 |
| 14 | Chesham | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 15 | Chelmsford | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| 17 | AFC Totton | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 7 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 19 | Torquay | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 |
| 20 | Braintree Town | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 4 |
| 21 | Hampton & Richmond | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 18 | 4 |
| 22 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | Slough | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| 24 | Walton & Hersham | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dover
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Chesham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 15/08 | Slough England National League South |
3-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Chesham England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 18/04 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 11/04 | Farnborough England National League South |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/04 | Ebbsfleet United England National League South |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | AFC Totton England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 18/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 15/08 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Dover England National League South |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dover vs Maidenhead Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Maidenhead Utd win (47%). Probabilities: Dover 26%, draw 27%, Maidenhead Utd 47%.
How many goals are expected in Dover vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model expects 2.52 goals (Dover 1.04 · Maidenhead Utd 1.48), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dover vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.