Football · England National League South · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Maidstone Utd vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Maidstone Utd · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Maidstone Utd1.62

Weston Super Mare1.28

1X2

44% 27% 29%

Maidstone Utd Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidstone Utd 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWLWDWWW

Weston Super Mare 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DDDLWWDLWD

Head-to-head

Maidstone Utd 2–1–3 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Maidstone Utd2-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare3-0Maidstone Utd
Weston Super Mare3-0Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd0-1Weston Super Mare
Maidstone Utd1-0Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare1-1Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidstone Utd 1620 · Weston Super Mare 1515

	Maidstone Utd	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	44%	27%	29%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maidstone Utd (rating 1620 vs 1515).
H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidstone Utd	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.4	1.4 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.7	2.6 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.30

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:49 +4’	2.05	3.30	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidstone Utd 2–1–3 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/03/26 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	2-1 HT 2-0	Weston Super Mare
02/09/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	3-0 HT 2-0	Maidstone Utd
05/04/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	3-0 HT 1-0	Maidstone Utd
26/08/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
23/03/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
28/10/23 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-1 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	6	5	0	1	8	4	15
2	Maidstone Utd	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Folkestone Invicta	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
4	Weston Super Mare	6	3	2	1	12	5	11
5	Tonbridge Angels	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
6	Truro City	5	3	1	1	7	1	10
7	Dorking Wanderers	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
8	Farnborough	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
9	Farnham	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
10	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
11	Dover	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
12	Salisbury FC	5	2	1	2	8	4	7
13	Billericay Town	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
14	Chesham	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
15	Chelmsford	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
16	Hemel Hempstead	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
17	AFC Totton	5	2	1	2	3	8	7
18	Maidenhead Utd	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
19	Torquay	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
20	Braintree Town	5	1	1	3	7	13	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	5	0	0	5	6	14	0
24	Walton & Hersham	6	0	0	6	3	21	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidstone Utd	Weston Super Mare
Hampton & Richmond	4-1 W	3-0 W
Dorking Wanderers	3-2 W	1-1 D
AFC Hornchurch	5-4 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maidstone Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidstone Utd

WDWWLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
29/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
25/04	Bath City England National League South	0-2	3-2	12	2	W
18/04	Worthing England National League South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
11/04	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
06/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	4-4	5-4	3	2	W

Weston Super Mare

DDDLWWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
28/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/04	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidstone Utd vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidstone Utd win (44%). Probabilities: Maidstone Utd 44%, draw 27%, Weston Super Mare 29%.

How many goals are expected in Maidstone Utd vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Maidstone Utd 1.62 · Weston Super Mare 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidstone Utd vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.