Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Dover

Team pages: Dag & Red · Dover

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Dag & Red2.09

Dover1.07

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Dag & Red Draw Dover

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWLWD

Dover 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLWLWDDL

Head-to-head

Dag & Red 5–1–0 Dover (6 last)

Dag & Red2-0Dover
Dover2-2Dag & Red
Dag & Red3-1Dover
Dover0-2Dag & Red
Dover0-1Dag & Red
Dover1-2Dag & Red

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1525 · Dover 1449

	Dag & Red	Draw	Dover
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1525 vs 1449).
H2H favours Dag & Red: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Dover
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +5’	1.50	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 5–1–0 Dover

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/01/26 England National League South	Dag & Red	2-0 HT 0-0	Dover
02/09/25 England National League South	Dover	2-2 HT 0-1	Dag & Red
02/01/22 England National League	Dag & Red	3-1 HT 2-0	Dover
26/12/21 England National League	Dover	0-2 HT 0-2	Dag & Red
26/12/20 England National League	Dover	0-1 HT 0-0	Dag & Red
06/08/19 England National League	Dover	1-2 HT 1-1	Dag & Red

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Dover
Slough	1-0 W	5-3 W
Weston Super Mare	0-0 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dover (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

LDLWWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Horsham England National League South	1-1	1-1	8	2	D
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/04	Slough England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
18/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/04	Worthing England National League South	1-2	2-7	4	5	L

Dover

LLDLWLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
31/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
15/08	Slough England National League South	3-0	5-3	8	2	W
08/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
25/04	Chesham England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
18/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
11/04	Farnborough England National League South	1-2	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Dover?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (60%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 60%, draw 22%, Dover 18%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Dover?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Dag & Red 2.09 · Dover 1.07), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Dover?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.