Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Dorking Wanderers vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Dorking Wanderers · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Dorking Wanderers1.49

Chelmsford1.23

1X2

42% 27% 31%

Dorking Wanderers Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Dorking Wanderers 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLDWLWWD

Chelmsford 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDWLDDDWDD

Head-to-head

Dorking Wanderers 2–4–0 Chelmsford (6 last)

Dorking Wanderers1-1Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-1Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers2-2Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-4Dorking Wanderers
Dorking Wanderers2-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford2-2Dorking Wanderers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dorking Wanderers 1519 · Chelmsford 1513

	Dorking Wanderers	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	42%	28%	30%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Dorking Wanderers: 2-4-0.
High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dorking Wanderers	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 7.1	2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:28 +1’	2.10	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dorking Wanderers 2–4–0 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/26 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	1-1 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
04/10/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 1-0	Dorking Wanderers
08/03/25 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-2 HT 0-1	Chelmsford
09/11/24 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-4 HT 0-2	Dorking Wanderers
19/02/22 England National League South	Dorking Wanderers	2-0 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
04/09/21 England National League South	Chelmsford	2-2 HT 1-1	Dorking Wanderers

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dorking Wanderers	Chelmsford
Truro City	1-0 W	0-0 D
Maidenhead Utd	0-0 D	1-0 W
Weston Super Mare	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dorking Wanderers

DWLLDWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Billericay Town England National League South	2-2	3-3	7	4	D
31/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
29/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-1	4-1	6	3	W
22/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
18/08	AFC Totton England National League South	2-0	3-0	7	4	W
15/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
08/08	Dag & Red England National League South	0-1	0-1	8	5	L
02/05	Torquay England National League South	0-2	2-4	8	7	L
29/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
25/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-1	9	6	D

Chelmsford

DDWLDDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	2-1	3-3	6	6	D
11/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-1	9	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dorking Wanderers vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dorking Wanderers win (42%). Probabilities: Dorking Wanderers 42%, draw 27%, Chelmsford 31%.

How many goals are expected in Dorking Wanderers vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Dorking Wanderers 1.49 · Chelmsford 1.23), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Dorking Wanderers vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.