Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Ebbsfleet United1.75

Hemel Hempstead1.18

1X2

50% 25% 25%

Ebbsfleet United Draw Hemel Hempstead

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ebbsfleet United 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLWLW

Hemel Hempstead 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Ebbsfleet United 2–4–0 Hemel Hempstead (6 last)

Ebbsfleet United2-2Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead0-0Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United0-0Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead1-1Ebbsfleet United
Hemel Hempstead1-3Ebbsfleet United
Ebbsfleet United3-1Hemel Hempstead

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ebbsfleet United 1540 · Hemel Hempstead 1525

	Ebbsfleet United	Draw	Hemel Hempstead
Our model	50%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ebbsfleet United: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ebbsfleet United	Hemel Hempstead
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.9	2.2 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +8’	1.80	3.60	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ebbsfleet United 2–4–0 Hemel Hempstead

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/26 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	2-2 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead
02/09/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-0 HT 0-0	Ebbsfleet United
04/03/23 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	0-0 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
29/10/22 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-1 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
08/01/22 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-3 HT 0-1	Ebbsfleet United
28/08/21 England National League South	Ebbsfleet United	3-1 HT 1-0	Hemel Hempstead

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ebbsfleet United	Hemel Hempstead
Weston Super Mare	1-3 L	1-3 L
Maidenhead Utd	3-2 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ebbsfleet United (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ebbsfleet United

LWLWWWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
25/04	Worthing England National League South	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
18/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	3-0	4-0	4	4	W
11/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
06/04	Dover England National League South	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
03/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	2-0	2-1	4	6	W
28/03	Slough England National League South	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
21/03	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	4	L
17/03	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	3-2	6	6	W
14/03	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-3	9	1	L

Hemel Hempstead

WDDDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Farnham England National League South	1-1	1-1	11	3	D
31/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L
29/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-0	1-3	3	3	L
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
08/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
28/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
25/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
18/04	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-1	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ebbsfleet United win (50%). Probabilities: Ebbsfleet United 50%, draw 25%, Hemel Hempstead 25%.

How many goals are expected in Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Ebbsfleet United 1.75 · Hemel Hempstead 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.