Football · England National League South · 08/09, 20:45

Prediction: Tonbridge Angels vs Maidstone Utd

Team pages: Tonbridge Angels · Maidstone Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.09Total

Tonbridge Angels1.49

Maidstone Utd1.6

1X2

35% 26% 39%

Tonbridge Angels Draw Maidstone Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tonbridge Angels 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWLDWW

Maidstone Utd 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDWWWW

Head-to-head

Tonbridge Angels 1–3–2 Maidstone Utd (6 last)

Tonbridge Angels1-1Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd1-2Tonbridge Angels
Maidstone Utd1-1Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels1-3Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd2-0Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels1-1Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tonbridge Angels 1565 · Maidstone Utd 1604

	Tonbridge Angels	Draw	Maidstone Utd
Our model	35%	26%	39%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.09 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Maidstone Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tonbridge Angels	Maidstone Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.2	2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.8	3.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:10 +71’	2.60	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Tonbridge Angels 1–3–2 Maidstone Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-1 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd
01/11/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-2 HT 0-0	Tonbridge Angels
21/04/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-1 HT 1-0	Tonbridge Angels
26/12/24 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-3 HT 1-1	Maidstone Utd
01/01/24 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	2-0 HT 2-0	Tonbridge Angels
26/12/23 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-1 HT 0-0	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maidstone Utd	7	5	1	1	15	7	16
2	Dag & Red	7	5	1	1	9	5	16
3	Tonbridge Angels	7	4	1	2	17	7	13
4	Truro City	6	4	1	1	10	2	13
5	Folkestone Invicta	6	3	2	1	13	6	11
6	Weston Super Mare	7	3	2	2	12	6	11
7	Dorking Wanderers	7	3	2	2	13	8	11
8	Farnham	7	3	1	3	9	9	10
9	AFC Totton	6	3	1	2	7	9	10
10	Farnborough	6	3	1	2	6	8	10
11	Horsham	6	2	3	1	7	5	9
12	Maidenhead Utd	7	2	3	2	6	5	9
13	Torquay	7	2	3	2	7	9	9
14	Salisbury FC	6	2	2	2	9	5	8
15	Billericay Town	6	2	2	2	11	9	8
16	Chelmsford	6	1	5	0	5	4	8
17	Hemel Hempstead	7	2	2	3	7	9	8
18	Dover	7	2	2	3	13	16	8
19	Chesham	7	2	1	4	11	12	7
20	Braintree Town	6	2	1	3	9	14	7
21	Hampton & Richmond	7	1	1	5	8	22	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
23	Slough	6	0	0	6	7	16	0
24	Walton & Hersham	7	0	0	7	3	23	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tonbridge Angels	Maidstone Utd
Farnborough	4-0 W	1-2 L
Walton & Hersham	5-1 W	3-0 W
Salisbury FC	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tonbridge Angels (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tonbridge Angels

WWLWLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	4-0	2	3	W
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
29/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
22/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
18/08	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
08/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-0	4	2	W
25/04	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
18/04	Farnborough England National League South	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
11/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	3-2	7	3	W

Maidstone Utd

DWWLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
31/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	4-1	5	3	W
29/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	2-1	8	6	W
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
25/04	Bath City England National League South	0-2	3-2	12	2	W
18/04	Worthing England National League South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
11/04	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tonbridge Angels vs Maidstone Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maidstone Utd win (39%). Probabilities: Tonbridge Angels 35%, draw 26%, Maidstone Utd 39%.

How many goals are expected in Tonbridge Angels vs Maidstone Utd?

The model expects 3.09 goals (Tonbridge Angels 1.49 · Maidstone Utd 1.6), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tonbridge Angels vs Maidstone Utd?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.