Football · England National League South · 18/08, 20:45

Prediction: Torquay vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Torquay · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

Torquay1.84

Weston Super Mare1.3

1X2

49% 25% 26%

Torquay Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Torquay 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLWWDW

Weston Super Mare 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Torquay 4–2–0 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Weston Super Mare1-2Torquay
Weston Super Mare0-3Torquay
Torquay3-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare1-1Torquay
Torquay4-2Weston Super Mare
Torquay3-3Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Torquay 1622 · Weston Super Mare 1487

	Torquay	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	49%	25%	26%
Market	49%	26%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Torquay (rating 1622 vs 1487).
H2H favours Torquay: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Torquay	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.7	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/10/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.5 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	1.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.50

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Pinn 1.86
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.92 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +11’	1.85	3.50	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:28 +1’	1.86	3.50	3.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Torquay 4–2–0 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 UK Friendlies	Weston Super Mare	1-2 HT 0-1	Torquay
03/04/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-3 HT 0-1	Torquay
26/12/25 England National League South	Torquay	3-1 HT 2-0	Weston Super Mare
25/02/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-1 HT 1-0	Torquay
26/11/24 England National League South	Torquay	4-2 HT 2-2	Weston Super Mare
01/04/24 England National League South	Torquay	3-3 HT 2-1	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Weston Super Mare	2	2	0	0	6	0	6
2	Dag & Red	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
3	AFC Totton	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
4	Salisbury FC	2	1	1	0	5	0	4
5	Hemel Hempstead	2	1	1	0	3	1	4
6	Truro City	2	1	1	0	2	0	4
7	Torquay	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
8	Folkestone Invicta	1	1	0	0	5	1	3
9	Tonbridge Angels	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
10	Maidstone Utd	2	1	0	1	4	2	3
11	Billericay Town	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
12	Dover	2	1	0	1	5	5	3
13	Farnborough	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
14	Braintree Town	2	1	0	1	3	6	3
15	Chelmsford	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
15	Horsham	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
17	Dorking Wanderers	2	0	1	1	0	1	1
18	Maidenhead Utd	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
19	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Slough	1	0	0	1	3	5	0
21	Farnham	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
22	Chesham	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
23	Walton & Hersham	2	0	0	2	1	8	0
24	Hampton & Richmond	2	0	0	2	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Torquay	Weston Super Mare
Exeter	2-1 W	0-2 L
Cullompton Rangers	5-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Torquay (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Torquay

WWWLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-0	2-1	2	9	W
08/08	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
31/07	Exeter UK Friendlies	2-1	2-1	6	2	W
25/07	Cardiff U23 Club Friendly List	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
21/07	Plymouth UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	9	3	L
18/07	Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies	1-0	2-1	5	4	W
14/07	Plymouth Parkway UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	6	0	L
11/07	Brixham Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
07/07	Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List	2-0	5-1	–	–	W
04/07	Buckland Athletic Club Friendly List	2-0	6-0	–	–	W

Weston Super Mare

LWLDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
31/07	Gloucester UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/07	Exeter UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	1	0	L
21/07	Taunton Town UK Friendlies	3-0	4-0	4	0	W
18/07	Torquay UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
10/07	Clevedon Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
07/07	Bristol Rovers UK Friendlies	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
04/07	Cullompton Rangers Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Torquay vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Torquay win (49%). Probabilities: Torquay 49%, draw 25%, Weston Super Mare 26%.

How many goals are expected in Torquay vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 3.13 goals (Torquay 1.84 · Weston Super Mare 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Torquay vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.