Football · England National League South · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Chesham vs Dover

Team pages: Chesham · Dover

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Chesham2.07

Dover1.21

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Chesham Draw Dover

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chesham 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Dover 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chesham 0–1–1 Dover (2 last)

Dover2-2Chesham
Chesham0-1Dover

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chesham 1513 · Dover 1480

	Chesham	Draw	Dover
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chesham	Dover
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	1.4 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.7 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.3	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.07
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.78 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:52 +2’	1.60	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +5’	1.61	4.07	4.78

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chesham 0–1–1 Dover

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League South	Dover	2-2 HT 1-1	Chesham
06/12/25 England National League South	Chesham	0-1 HT 0-0	Dover

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	5	4	0	1	7	4	12
2	Weston Super Mare	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
3	Truro City	4	3	1	0	7	0	10
4	Maidstone Utd	5	3	1	1	10	6	10
5	Folkestone Invicta	4	2	2	0	9	3	8
6	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
7	Dorking Wanderers	5	2	1	2	9	5	7
8	Billericay Town	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
9	Tonbridge Angels	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
10	Dover	5	2	1	2	11	11	7
11	Hemel Hempstead	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
12	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
13	Chesham	5	2	0	3	8	7	6
14	Chelmsford	4	1	3	0	3	2	6
15	Torquay	5	1	3	1	4	5	6
16	Farnham	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
17	AFC Totton	4	2	0	2	2	7	6
18	Maidenhead Utd	5	1	2	2	2	4	5
19	Salisbury FC	4	1	1	2	7	4	4
20	Braintree Town	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	5	1	1	3	6	14	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	4	0	0	4	6	13	0
24	Walton & Hersham	5	0	0	5	2	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chesham	Dover
Farnborough	0-1 L	1-3 L
Braintree Town	2-3 L	3-3 D
Weston Super Mare	0-3 L	3-2 W
Slough	4-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chesham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	AFC Totton England National League South	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
15/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
08/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
25/04	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
18/04	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
11/04	Bath City England National League South	2-3	2-4	2	6	L
06/04	Slough England National League South	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
03/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-0	3-0	5	1	W

Dover

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-1	3-3	4	4	D
22/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
18/08	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-0	0-1	7	7	L
15/08	Slough England National League South	3-0	5-3	8	2	W
08/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
25/04	Chesham England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
18/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
11/04	Farnborough England National League South	1-2	1-3	4	5	L
06/04	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-1	0-4	1	3	L
03/04	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-1	0-2	2	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chesham vs Dover?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chesham win (56%). Probabilities: Chesham 56%, draw 23%, Dover 21%.

How many goals are expected in Chesham vs Dover?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Chesham 2.07 · Dover 1.21), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chesham vs Dover?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.