Football · England National League South · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Weston Super Mare vs Chelmsford

Team pages: Weston Super Mare · Chelmsford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Weston Super Mare1.22

Chelmsford1.13

1X2

37% 29% 33%

Weston Super Mare Draw Chelmsford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Weston Super Mare 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWWDLW

Chelmsford 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWLDDDW

Head-to-head

Weston Super Mare 3–2–1 Chelmsford (6 last)

Chelmsford1-0Weston Super Mare
Chelmsford0-2Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare0-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare2-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford1-1Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Weston Super Mare 1501 · Chelmsford 1518

	Weston Super Mare	Draw	Chelmsford
Our model	37%	31%	33%
Market	38%	28%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Weston Super Mare	Chelmsford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.6 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.6	1.8 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.20

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.35▼	Pinn 2.46 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.29
2	2.30 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.66

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 8.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +8’	2.70	3.20	2.30
03:49 +2’	2.35▼	3.20	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +4’	2.44	3.30	2.68
06:40 +1’	2.46▲	3.29▼	2.66▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Weston Super Mare 3–2–1 Chelmsford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-0 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
06/12/25 England FA Cup	Chelmsford	0-2 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
16/08/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-0 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
15/03/25 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-1 HT 0-1	Weston Super Mare
24/08/24 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	2-0 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
29/01/24 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	5	4	0	1	7	4	12
2	Weston Super Mare	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
3	Truro City	4	3	1	0	7	0	10
4	Maidstone Utd	5	3	1	1	10	6	10
5	Folkestone Invicta	4	2	2	0	9	3	8
6	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
7	Dorking Wanderers	5	2	1	2	9	5	7
8	Billericay Town	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
9	Tonbridge Angels	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
10	Dover	5	2	1	2	11	11	7
11	Hemel Hempstead	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
12	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
13	Chesham	5	2	0	3	8	7	6
14	Chelmsford	4	1	3	0	3	2	6
15	Torquay	5	1	3	1	4	5	6
16	Farnham	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
17	AFC Totton	4	2	0	2	2	7	6
18	Maidenhead Utd	5	1	2	2	2	4	5
19	Salisbury FC	4	1	1	2	7	4	4
20	Braintree Town	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	5	1	1	3	6	14	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	4	0	0	4	6	13	0
24	Walton & Hersham	5	0	0	5	2	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Weston Super Mare	Chelmsford
Hemel Hempstead	3-1 W	1-1 D
Chesham	3-0 W	2-0 W
AFC Hornchurch	0-2 L	3-3 D
Dag & Red	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Weston Super Mare (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Weston Super Mare

WDDDLWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-1	3-1	4	3	W
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
28/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/04	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
14/04	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W

Chelmsford

WDDDWLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	2-1	3-3	6	6	D
11/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
06/04	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	3-3	1	8	D
03/04	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Weston Super Mare vs Chelmsford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Weston Super Mare win (37%). Probabilities: Weston Super Mare 37%, draw 29%, Chelmsford 33%.

How many goals are expected in Weston Super Mare vs Chelmsford?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Weston Super Mare 1.22 · Chelmsford 1.13), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Weston Super Mare vs Chelmsford?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.