Football · England National League South · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Chelmsford · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Chelmsford1.84

Salisbury FC1.14

1X2

53% 25% 22%

Chelmsford Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDDDWD

Salisbury FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDWDLLW

Head-to-head

Chelmsford 3–1–1 Salisbury FC (5 last)

Chelmsford2-2Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC3-0Chelmsford
Salisbury FC1-3Chelmsford
Chelmsford2-1Salisbury FC
Chelmsford4-0Salisbury FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1505 · Salisbury FC 1522

	Chelmsford	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	53%	25%	22%
Market	53%	25%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Chelmsford: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.8	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.60

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:46 +7’	1.70	3.60	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 3–1–1 Salisbury FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England National League South	Chelmsford	2-2 HT 1-1	Salisbury FC
22/11/25 England National League South	Salisbury FC	3-0 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
15/02/25 England National League South	Salisbury FC	1-3 HT 0-2	Chelmsford
26/10/24 England National League South	Chelmsford	2-1 HT 1-1	Salisbury FC
11/01/20 England FA Trophy	Chelmsford	4-0 HT 1-0	Salisbury FC

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	6	5	0	1	8	4	15
2	Maidstone Utd	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Folkestone Invicta	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
4	Weston Super Mare	6	3	2	1	12	5	11
5	Tonbridge Angels	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
6	Truro City	5	3	1	1	7	1	10
7	Dorking Wanderers	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
8	Farnborough	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
9	Farnham	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
10	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
11	Dover	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
12	Salisbury FC	5	2	1	2	8	4	7
13	Billericay Town	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
14	Chesham	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
15	Chelmsford	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
16	Hemel Hempstead	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
17	AFC Totton	5	2	1	2	3	8	7
18	Maidenhead Utd	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
19	Torquay	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
20	Braintree Town	5	1	1	3	7	13	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	5	0	0	5	6	14	0
24	Walton & Hersham	6	0	0	6	3	21	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Salisbury FC
Weston Super Mare	1-1 D	1-2 L
Hemel Hempstead	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chelmsford (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

DDDWLDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
29/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	3	W
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	2-1	3-3	6	6	D
11/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
06/04	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	3-3	1	8	D

Salisbury FC

LLLWDWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
29/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-1	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
15/08	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
25/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
18/04	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
11/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	2-3	4	3	L
06/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/04	AFC Totton England National League South	0-1	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (53%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 53%, draw 25%, Salisbury FC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Chelmsford 1.84 · Salisbury FC 1.14), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.