Football · England National League South · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels

Team pages: Farnborough · Tonbridge Angels

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Farnborough1.73

Tonbridge Angels1.5

1X2

42% 26% 32%

Farnborough Draw Tonbridge Angels

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Farnborough 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWDW

Tonbridge Angels 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLWLWLDW

Head-to-head

Farnborough 3–1–2 Tonbridge Angels (6 last)

Farnborough1-6Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels3-3Farnborough
Tonbridge Angels1-4Farnborough
Farnborough0-2Tonbridge Angels
Tonbridge Angels1-2Farnborough
Farnborough4-1Tonbridge Angels

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Farnborough 1540 · Tonbridge Angels 1538

	Farnborough	Draw	Tonbridge Angels
Our model	42%	25%	33%
Market	42%	26%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Farnborough: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Farnborough	Tonbridge Angels
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.5	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.7	2.7 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.40

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +13’	2.15	3.40	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 3–1–2 Tonbridge Angels

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England National League South	Farnborough	1-6 HT 1-3	Tonbridge Angels
30/08/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	3-3 HT 1-0	Farnborough
05/04/25 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-4 HT 0-2	Farnborough
26/08/24 England National League South	Farnborough	0-2 HT 0-1	Tonbridge Angels
01/04/24 England National League South	Tonbridge Angels	1-2 HT 1-0	Farnborough
24/10/23 England National League South	Farnborough	4-1 HT 2-0	Tonbridge Angels

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	6	5	0	1	8	4	15
2	Maidstone Utd	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Folkestone Invicta	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
4	Weston Super Mare	6	3	2	1	12	5	11
5	Tonbridge Angels	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
6	Truro City	5	3	1	1	7	1	10
7	Dorking Wanderers	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
8	Farnborough	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
9	Farnham	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
10	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
11	Dover	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
12	Salisbury FC	5	2	1	2	8	4	7
13	Billericay Town	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
14	Chesham	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
15	Chelmsford	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
16	Hemel Hempstead	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
17	AFC Totton	5	2	1	2	3	8	7
18	Maidenhead Utd	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
19	Torquay	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
20	Braintree Town	5	1	1	3	7	13	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	5	0	0	5	6	14	0
24	Walton & Hersham	6	0	0	6	3	21	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Farnborough	Tonbridge Angels
Braintree Town	2-0 W	4-0 W
Dover	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Farnborough

LWWLWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Braintree Town England National League South	0-0	2-0	6	2	W
22/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
19/08	Chesham England National League South	0-0	1-0	9	0	W
15/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-2	0-2	11	2	L
08/08	Maidstone Utd England National League South	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
25/04	AFC Totton England National League South	3-1	6-1	9	5	W
18/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	1-3	1-6	4	2	L
11/04	Dover England National League South	2-1	3-1	2	5	W
06/04	Horsham England National League South	0-0	2-0	2	0	W
03/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-2	1-3	2	3	L

Tonbridge Angels

DWWLWLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	3-0	5-1	9	2	W
29/08	Billericay Town England National League South	1-2	2-2	9	6	D
22/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
18/08	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
15/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-2	8	9	L
08/08	Braintree Town England National League South	2-0	4-0	4	2	W
25/04	Torquay England National League South	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
18/04	Farnborough England National League South	3-1	6-1	7	2	W
11/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
06/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-0	1-1	4	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Farnborough win (42%). Probabilities: Farnborough 42%, draw 26%, Tonbridge Angels 32%.

How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Farnborough 1.73 · Tonbridge Angels 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Tonbridge Angels?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.