Football · England National League South · 05/09, 16:00

Prediction: Horsham vs Dag & Red

Team pages: Horsham · Dag & Red

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

Horsham1.22

Dag & Red1.3

1X2

34% 28% 38%

Horsham Draw Dag & Red

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Horsham 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDDWWL

Dag & Red 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Horsham 1–1–0 Dag & Red (2 last)

Horsham1-1Dag & Red
Dag & Red1-2Horsham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Horsham 1482 · Dag & Red 1529

	Horsham	Draw	Dag & Red
Our model	33%	29%	37%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1482 vs 1529).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Horsham	Dag & Red
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.1	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6	3.1 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:40 +13’	2.55	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 1–1–0 Dag & Red

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/26 England National League South	Horsham	1-1 HT 0-1	Dag & Red
21/10/25 England National League South	Dag & Red	1-2 HT 1-2	Horsham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	6	5	0	1	8	4	15
2	Maidstone Utd	6	4	1	1	14	7	13
3	Folkestone Invicta	5	3	2	0	11	3	11
4	Weston Super Mare	6	3	2	1	12	5	11
5	Tonbridge Angels	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
6	Truro City	5	3	1	1	7	1	10
7	Dorking Wanderers	6	3	1	2	10	5	10
8	Farnborough	5	3	1	1	6	4	10
9	Farnham	6	3	0	3	8	8	9
10	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
11	Dover	6	2	2	2	13	13	8
12	Salisbury FC	5	2	1	2	8	4	7
13	Billericay Town	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
14	Chesham	6	2	1	3	10	9	7
15	Chelmsford	5	1	4	0	4	3	7
16	Hemel Hempstead	6	2	1	3	6	8	7
17	AFC Totton	5	2	1	2	3	8	7
18	Maidenhead Utd	6	1	3	2	3	5	6
19	Torquay	6	1	3	2	4	7	6
20	Braintree Town	5	1	1	3	7	13	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	6	1	1	4	7	18	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	5	0	0	5	6	14	0
24	Walton & Hersham	6	0	0	6	3	21	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Horsham	Dag & Red
Farnham	1-2 L	2-1 W
Torquay	1-1 D	2-0 W
Weston Super Mare	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Horsham

LDLLWDDWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Farnham England National League South	1-2	1-2	13	4	L
22/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-0	2-1	9	2	W
18/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	9	W
15/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Torquay England National League South	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
25/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	1-0	3-2	5	6	W
18/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	1-2	6	4	L
14/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-1	2	7	L
11/04	Maidstone Utd England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
06/04	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-2	5	0	L

Dag & Red

DLDLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Slough England National League South	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/04	Slough England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
18/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/04	Worthing England National League South	1-2	2-7	4	5	L
06/04	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	3-3	3	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Horsham vs Dag & Red?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Dag & Red win (38%). Probabilities: Horsham 34%, draw 28%, Dag & Red 38%.

How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Dag & Red?

The model expects 2.52 goals (Horsham 1.22 · Dag & Red 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Horsham vs Dag & Red?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.