Football · England National League South · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Horsham vs Salisbury FC
Team pages: Horsham · Salisbury FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.05Total
Horsham1.66
Salisbury FC1.39
1X2
Horsham
Draw
Salisbury FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Horsham
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Salisbury FC
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Horsham
0–1–1
Salisbury FC
(2 last)
- Salisbury FC2-1Horsham
- Horsham1-1Salisbury FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Horsham 1496 · Salisbury FC 1514
| Horsham | Draw | Salisbury FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Horsham | Salisbury FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.7 | 2.2 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.7 | 2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Horsham 0–1–1 Salisbury FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England National League South | Salisbury FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Horsham |
| 30/08/25 England National League South | Horsham | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Salisbury FC |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salisbury FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Weston Super Mare | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Truro City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Farnborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | AFC Totton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Dag & Red | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Horsham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Torquay | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Slough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Maidstone Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Farnham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Dover | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Maidenhead Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Chesham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Walton & Hersham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Braintree Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Horsham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Torquay England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Worthing UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Worthing Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Crystal Palace U23 Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Sutton Utd UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Dulwich Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/07 | Eastbourne Town UK Friendlies |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 10/07 | Eastleigh UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Chippenham Town England National League South |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Salisbury FC England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
Salisbury FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hampton & Richmond England National League South |
1-0 | 5-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 31/07 | Havant and W UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 5-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/07 | Frome Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Wimborne Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Bristol Rovers Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 18/04 | Horsham England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Tonbridge Angels England National League South |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/04 | AFC Totton England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Horsham vs Salisbury FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Horsham win (43%). Probabilities: Horsham 43%, draw 26%, Salisbury FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in Horsham vs Salisbury FC?
The model expects 3.05 goals (Horsham 1.66 · Salisbury FC 1.39), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Horsham vs Salisbury FC?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.