Football · England National League South · 19/08, 20:45
Prediction: Farnborough vs Chesham
Team pages: Farnborough · Chesham
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Farnborough1.67
Chesham1.78
1X2
Farnborough
Draw
Chesham
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Farnborough
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Chesham
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Farnborough
3–3
Chesham
(6 last)
- Farnborough0-1Chesham
- Chesham3-2Farnborough
- Chesham2-1Farnborough
- Farnborough2-1Chesham
- Farnborough1-0Chesham
- Chesham1-3Farnborough
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Farnborough 1520 · Chesham 1527
| Farnborough | Draw | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 24% | 40% |
| Market | 35% | 26% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Farnborough | Chesham | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 22/33/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.9 | 2.4 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 0.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Farnborough 3–0–3 Chesham
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England National League South | Farnborough | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Chesham |
| 16/08/25 England National League South | Chesham | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Farnborough |
| 12/04/25 England National League South | Chesham | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Farnborough |
| 04/02/25 England National League South | Farnborough | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Chesham |
| 08/02/22 England Southern Premier League South | Farnborough | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Chesham |
| 17/08/21 England Southern Premier League South | Chesham | 1-3 HT 1-1 | Farnborough |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston Super Mare | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | AFC Totton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Torquay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Maidstone Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dover | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Horsham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Slough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 | Farnham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Farnborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 01/08 | Bath City UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 29/07 | Portsmouth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Aldershot UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Carshalton Ath Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Reading UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Ashford Town (Middx) UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Cobham Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Totton England National League South |
3-1 | 6-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
Chesham
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
1-2 | 2-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Oxford City Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Chertsey Town UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Wingate & Finchley Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Basingstoke UK Friendlies |
4-2 | 6-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Harborough Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Berkhamsted Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Hadley Club Friendly List |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Dover England National League South |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Farnborough vs Chesham?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chesham win (40%). Probabilities: Farnborough 35%, draw 25%, Chesham 40%.
How many goals are expected in Farnborough vs Chesham?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Farnborough 1.67 · Chesham 1.78), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Chesham?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.