Football · England National League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: AFC Totton vs Chesham

Team pages: AFC Totton · Chesham

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

AFC Totton1.52

Chesham1.67

1X2

34% 25% 41%

AFC Totton Draw Chesham

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AFC Totton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Chesham 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AFC Totton 1–2–1 Chesham (4 last)

Chesham1-2AFC Totton
AFC Totton1-1Chesham
Chesham2-0AFC Totton
AFC Totton2-2Chesham

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AFC Totton 1524 · Chesham 1514

	AFC Totton	Draw	Chesham
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AFC Totton	Chesham
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	1.7 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:20 +18’	2.63	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AFC Totton 1–2–1 Chesham

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England National League South	Chesham	1-2 HT 0-0	AFC Totton
02/09/25 England National League South	AFC Totton	1-1 HT 0-0	Chesham
16/03/24 England Southern Premier League South	Chesham	2-0	AFC Totton
02/12/23 England Southern Premier League South	AFC Totton	2-2	Chesham

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Horsham	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
3	Weston Super Mare	4	2	1	1	8	3	7
4	Truro City	3	2	1	0	4	0	7
5	Maidstone Utd	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
6	Hemel Hempstead	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
8	Billericay Town	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
9	Tonbridge Angels	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
10	Dover	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
11	AFC Totton	3	2	0	1	2	3	6
12	Folkestone Invicta	3	1	2	0	7	3	5
13	Torquay	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
14	Maidenhead Utd	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
15	Salisbury FC	3	1	1	1	6	2	4
16	Dorking Wanderers	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
17	Chelmsford	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
18	Chesham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
18	Farnham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
20	Braintree Town	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
21	Hampton & Richmond	4	1	0	3	5	13	3
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	3	0	0	3	6	11	0
24	Walton & Hersham	4	0	0	4	1	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AFC Totton	Chesham
Farnborough	1-6 L	0-1 L
Bath City	2-1 W	2-4 L
Chelmsford	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Totton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AFC Totton

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
15/08	Billericay Town England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
08/08	Farnham England National League South	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/04	Farnborough England National League South	1-3	1-6	5	5	L
18/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-2	3-2	7	2	W
14/04	Bath City England National League South	2-1	2-1	9	5	W
11/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/04	Chippenham Town England National League South	0-1	0-2	5	9	L
03/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
30/03	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	6	D

Chesham

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
19/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-0	0-1	3	0	L
15/08	Braintree Town England National League South	1-2	2-3	8	3	L
08/08	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	0	L
25/04	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
18/04	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
11/04	Bath City England National League South	2-3	2-4	2	6	L
06/04	Slough England National League South	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
03/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	2-0	3-0	5	1	W
31/03	Enfield Town England National League South	1-2	4-3	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AFC Totton vs Chesham?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chesham win (41%). Probabilities: AFC Totton 34%, draw 25%, Chesham 41%.

How many goals are expected in AFC Totton vs Chesham?

The model expects 3.19 goals (AFC Totton 1.52 · Chesham 1.67), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in AFC Totton vs Chesham?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.