Football · England National League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury FC

Team pages: Maidstone Utd · Salisbury FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Maidstone Utd2.03

Salisbury FC1.2

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Maidstone Utd Draw Salisbury FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Maidstone Utd 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Salisbury FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Maidstone Utd 4–0 Salisbury FC (4 last)

Salisbury FC0-1Maidstone Utd
Maidstone Utd1-0Salisbury FC
Maidstone Utd3-2Salisbury FC
Salisbury FC0-2Maidstone Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maidstone Utd 1645 · Salisbury FC 1512

	Maidstone Utd	Draw	Salisbury FC
Our model	56%	23%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maidstone Utd (rating 1645 vs 1512).
H2H favours Maidstone Utd: 4-0-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maidstone Utd	Salisbury FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.2	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.70

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:41 +3’	1.61	3.70	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maidstone Utd 4–0–0 Salisbury FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 England National League South	Salisbury FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Maidstone Utd
29/11/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Salisbury FC
01/03/25 England National League South	Maidstone Utd	3-2 HT 1-1	Salisbury FC
17/12/24 England National League South	Salisbury FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Maidstone Utd

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Horsham	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
3	Weston Super Mare	4	2	1	1	8	3	7
4	Truro City	3	2	1	0	4	0	7
5	Maidstone Utd	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
6	Hemel Hempstead	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
8	Billericay Town	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
9	Tonbridge Angels	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
10	Dover	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
11	AFC Totton	3	2	0	1	2	3	6
12	Folkestone Invicta	3	1	2	0	7	3	5
13	Torquay	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
14	Maidenhead Utd	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
15	Salisbury FC	3	1	1	1	6	2	4
16	Dorking Wanderers	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
17	Chelmsford	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
18	Chesham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
18	Farnham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
20	Braintree Town	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
21	Hampton & Richmond	4	1	0	3	5	13	3
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	3	0	0	3	6	11	0
24	Walton & Hersham	4	0	0	4	1	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maidstone Utd	Salisbury FC
Horsham	0-0 D	0-0 D
Dover	2-0 W	2-1 W
AFC Totton	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Maidstone Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maidstone Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-1	3-2	7	3	W
18/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
15/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
08/08	Farnborough England National League South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
25/04	Bath City England National League South	0-2	3-2	12	2	W
18/04	Worthing England National League South	1-1	2-1	9	5	W
11/04	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
06/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	4-4	5-4	3	2	W
03/04	Dover England National League South	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
28/03	AFC Totton England National League South	1-0	3-1	5	2	W

Salisbury FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
15/08	Horsham England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
08/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	5-0	6	4	W
25/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
18/04	Horsham England National League South	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
11/04	Tonbridge Angels England National League South	0-1	2-3	4	3	L
06/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-2	1-2	5	2	L
03/04	AFC Totton England National League South	0-1	1-2	4	5	L
28/03	Dover England National League South	2-1	2-1	6	1	W
21/03	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	2-0	5	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maidstone Utd win (55%). Probabilities: Maidstone Utd 55%, draw 24%, Salisbury FC 21%.

How many goals are expected in Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury FC?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Maidstone Utd 2.03 · Salisbury FC 1.2), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maidstone Utd vs Salisbury FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.