Football · England National League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Weston Super Mare

Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · Weston Super Mare

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

Hemel Hempstead1.09

Weston Super Mare1.02

1X2

37% 30% 33%

Hemel Hempstead Draw Weston Super Mare

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Hemel Hempstead 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDDWLW

Weston Super Mare 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDLWWDL

Head-to-head

Hemel Hempstead 1–3–2 Weston Super Mare (6 last)

Hemel Hempstead1-1Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare0-0Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead3-0Weston Super Mare
Weston Super Mare1-1Hemel Hempstead
Hemel Hempstead0-1Weston Super Mare
Hemel Hempstead1-2Weston Super Mare

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1535 · Weston Super Mare 1487

	Hemel Hempstead	Draw	Weston Super Mare
Our model	36%	33%	32%
Market	37%	29%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hemel Hempstead (rating 1535 vs 1487).
H2H favours Weston Super Mare: 2-3-1.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hemel Hempstead	Weston Super Mare
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.10

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:44

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:33 +11’	2.38	3.10	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 1–3–2 Weston Super Mare

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/04/26 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-1 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare
31/03/26 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	0-0 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
04/11/25 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	3-0 HT 1-0	Weston Super Mare
01/02/25 England National League South	Weston Super Mare	1-1 HT 0-0	Hemel Hempstead
11/11/24 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	0-1 HT 0-1	Weston Super Mare
17/02/24 England National League South	Hemel Hempstead	1-2 HT 0-0	Weston Super Mare

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Horsham	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
3	Weston Super Mare	4	2	1	1	8	3	7
4	Truro City	3	2	1	0	4	0	7
5	Maidstone Utd	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
6	Hemel Hempstead	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
8	Billericay Town	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
9	Tonbridge Angels	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
10	Dover	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
11	AFC Totton	3	2	0	1	2	3	6
12	Folkestone Invicta	3	1	2	0	7	3	5
13	Torquay	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
14	Maidenhead Utd	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
15	Salisbury FC	3	1	1	1	6	2	4
16	Dorking Wanderers	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
17	Chelmsford	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
18	Chesham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
18	Farnham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
20	Braintree Town	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
21	Hampton & Richmond	4	1	0	3	5	13	3
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	3	0	0	3	6	11	0
24	Walton & Hersham	4	0	0	4	1	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hemel Hempstead	Weston Super Mare
Torquay	2-1 W	0-0 D
Enfield Town	0-0 D	1-0 W
Chesham	0-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Weston Super Mare (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hemel Hempstead

LDWWDDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Salisbury FC England National League South	0-1	2-1	7	1	W
18/08	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
15/08	Farnborough England National League South	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
08/08	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
28/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
25/04	Salisbury FC England National League South	1-1	1-1	9	3	D
18/04	Torquay England National League South	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
11/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-0	3-1	7	1	W
06/04	Enfield Town England National League South	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
03/04	Chesham England National League South	0-2	0-3	8	1	L

Weston Super Mare

WWDDDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Dover England National League South	1-1	2-3	10	1	L
18/08	Torquay England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	7	D
15/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-0	3-0	7	3	W
08/08	Chesham England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
02/05	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
28/04	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
25/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/04	Dag & Red England National League South	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
14/04	Horsham England National League South	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
11/04	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	1-0	10	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Weston Super Mare?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hemel Hempstead win (37%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 37%, draw 30%, Weston Super Mare 33%.

How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Weston Super Mare?

The model expects 2.11 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.09 · Weston Super Mare 1.02), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Weston Super Mare?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.