Football · England National League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Chelmsford vs Maidenhead Utd

Team pages: Chelmsford · Maidenhead Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Chelmsford1.39

Maidenhead Utd1.04

1X2

44% 28% 27%

Chelmsford Draw Maidenhead Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Chelmsford 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

DWDDDWLDDD

Maidenhead Utd 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLLDWD

Head-to-head

Chelmsford 1–1–4 Maidenhead Utd (6 last)

Chelmsford1-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd2-1Chelmsford
Chelmsford0-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-0Chelmsford
Chelmsford4-1Maidenhead Utd
Maidenhead Utd1-0Chelmsford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1506 · Maidenhead Utd 1480

	Chelmsford	Draw	Maidenhead Utd
Our model	44%	30%	27%
Market	45%	27%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Maidenhead Utd: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chelmsford	Maidenhead Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	0.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.9	2.1 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.30

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:41 +3’	2.00	3.30	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 1–1–4 Maidenhead Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 England National League South	Chelmsford	1-1 HT 0-0	Maidenhead Utd
06/09/25 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	2-1 HT 1-0	Chelmsford
06/03/17 England National League South	Chelmsford	0-1 HT 0-1	Maidenhead Utd
20/08/16 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Chelmsford
12/03/16 England National League South	Chelmsford	4-1 HT 2-0	Maidenhead Utd
19/09/15 England National League South	Maidenhead Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Chelmsford

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	4	4	0	0	7	1	12
2	Horsham	4	2	2	0	5	2	8
3	Weston Super Mare	4	2	1	1	8	3	7
4	Truro City	3	2	1	0	4	0	7
5	Maidstone Utd	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
6	Hemel Hempstead	4	2	1	1	5	3	7
7	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
8	Billericay Town	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
9	Tonbridge Angels	4	2	0	2	6	4	6
10	Dover	4	2	0	2	8	8	6
11	AFC Totton	3	2	0	1	2	3	6
12	Folkestone Invicta	3	1	2	0	7	3	5
13	Torquay	4	1	2	1	3	4	5
14	Maidenhead Utd	4	1	2	1	2	3	5
15	Salisbury FC	3	1	1	1	6	2	4
16	Dorking Wanderers	4	1	1	2	5	4	4
17	Chelmsford	3	0	3	0	2	2	3
18	Chesham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
18	Farnham	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
20	Braintree Town	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
21	Hampton & Richmond	4	1	0	3	5	13	3
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	3	0	0	3	6	11	0
24	Walton & Hersham	4	0	0	4	1	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chelmsford	Maidenhead Utd
Truro City	0-0 D	0-2 L
Hemel Hempstead	1-1 D	1-0 W
AFC Hornchurch	3-3 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chelmsford

DWDDDWLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	1-0	1-1	6	1	D
15/08	Truro City England National League South	0-0	0-0	10	4	D
08/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
25/04	Eastbourne Borough England National League South	1-3	1-3	7	4	L
18/04	Chesham England National League South	0-0	2-0	4	1	W
14/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	2-1	3-3	6	6	D
11/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
06/04	Dag & Red England National League South	1-0	3-3	1	8	D
03/04	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	3-0	3	0	W
30/03	AFC Totton England National League South	1-0	1-1	3	6	D

Maidenhead Utd

DWDWDLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Farnborough England National League South	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
18/08	Hemel Hempstead England National League South	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
15/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
08/08	Truro City England National League South	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
29/04	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	0-2	0-2	3	4	L
25/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
18/04	Dover England National League South	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
11/04	Chelmsford England National League South	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
06/04	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	1-1	2-1	1	5	W
03/04	Slough England National League South	1-0	2-2	1	10	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Maidenhead Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chelmsford win (44%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 44%, draw 28%, Maidenhead Utd 27%.

How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Chelmsford 1.39 · Maidenhead Utd 1.04), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Maidenhead Utd?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.