Football · England National League South · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Dag & Red vs Slough

Team pages: Dag & Red · Slough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Dag & Red2.41

Slough1.09

1X2

65% 21% 14%

Dag & Red Draw Slough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Dag & Red 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Slough 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Dag & Red 0–1–1 Slough (2 last)

Slough3-2Dag & Red
Dag & Red0-0Slough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dag & Red 1533 · Slough 1409

	Dag & Red	Draw	Slough
Our model	66%	20%	15%
Market	65%	22%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dag & Red (rating 1533 vs 1409).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dag & Red	Slough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2	1.6 / 3.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	10/20/70%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	1.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.5	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X4.10

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.38▼	Pinn 1.42
X	3.90 → 4.10▲	Pinn 4.62 ★
2	5.00 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
21:45 +7’	1.50	3.90	5.00
03:48 +3’	1.38▼	4.10▲	6.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:49 +3’	1.42	4.62	6.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 2 odds moves recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Dag & Red 0–1–1 Slough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League South	Slough	3-2 HT 2-2	Dag & Red
16/12/25 England National League South	Dag & Red	0-0 HT 0-0	Slough

Standings · England National League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dag & Red	5	4	0	1	7	4	12
2	Weston Super Mare	5	3	1	1	11	4	10
3	Truro City	4	3	1	0	7	0	10
4	Maidstone Utd	5	3	1	1	10	6	10
5	Folkestone Invicta	4	2	2	0	9	3	8
6	Horsham	5	2	2	1	6	4	8
7	Dorking Wanderers	5	2	1	2	9	5	7
8	Billericay Town	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
9	Tonbridge Angels	5	2	1	2	8	6	7
10	Dover	5	2	1	2	11	11	7
11	Hemel Hempstead	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
12	Farnborough	4	2	1	1	4	4	7
13	Chesham	5	2	0	3	8	7	6
14	Chelmsford	4	1	3	0	3	2	6
15	Torquay	5	1	3	1	4	5	6
16	Farnham	5	2	0	3	6	8	6
17	AFC Totton	4	2	0	2	2	7	6
18	Maidenhead Utd	5	1	2	2	2	4	5
19	Salisbury FC	4	1	1	2	7	4	4
20	Braintree Town	4	1	1	2	7	11	4
21	Hampton & Richmond	5	1	1	3	6	14	4
22	Ebbsfleet United	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Slough	4	0	0	4	6	13	0
24	Walton & Hersham	5	0	0	5	2	16	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dag & Red	Slough
Torquay	2-0 W	1-5 L
Farnham	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Dag & Red (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dag & Red

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Truro City England National League South	0-1	0-3	4	5	L
22/08	Torquay England National League South	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/08	Walton & Hersham England National League South	0-0	2-0	8	1	W
14/08	Farnham England National League South	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Dorking Wanderers England National League South	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
25/04	Slough England National League South	2-2	2-3	4	5	L
18/04	Weston Super Mare England National League South	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
11/04	Worthing England National League South	1-2	2-7	4	5	L
06/04	Chelmsford England National League South	0-1	3-3	3	8	D
03/04	AFC Hornchurch England National League South	0-2	0-3	3	0	L

Slough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Folkestone Invicta England National League South	0-2	0-2	1	0	L
22/08	Hampton & Richmond England National League South	0-1	3-5	5	2	L
18/08	Farnham England National League South	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
15/08	Dover England National League South	0-3	3-5	7	2	L
25/04	Dag & Red England National League South	2-2	3-2	4	5	W
18/04	Enfield Town England National League South	1-0	2-5	5	2	L
11/04	Torquay England National League South	0-4	1-5	3	3	L
06/04	Chesham England National League South	0-1	1-4	3	1	L
03/04	Maidenhead Utd England National League South	0-1	2-2	7	10	D
28/03	Ebbsfleet United England National League South	0-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dag & Red vs Slough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dag & Red win (65%). Probabilities: Dag & Red 65%, draw 21%, Slough 14%.

How many goals are expected in Dag & Red vs Slough?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Dag & Red 2.41 · Slough 1.09), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dag & Red vs Slough?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.