Football · England National League South · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Dover vs Tonbridge Angels
Team pages: Dover · Tonbridge Angels
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Dover1.47
Tonbridge Angels1.64
1X2
Dover
Draw
Tonbridge Angels
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Dover
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Tonbridge Angels
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Dover
1–5
Tonbridge Angels
(6 last)
- Dover2-0Tonbridge Angels
- Tonbridge Angels2-1Dover
- Dover2-4Tonbridge Angels
- Dover1-2Tonbridge Angels
- Tonbridge Angels1-0Dover
- Tonbridge Angels4-0Dover
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Dover 1532 · Tonbridge Angels 1514
| Dover | Draw | Tonbridge Angels | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Tonbridge Angels: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Dover | Tonbridge Angels | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.4 / 7.4 | 2.3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.2 / 0 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Dover 1–0–5 Tonbridge Angels
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 England National League South | Dover | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 04/10/25 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Dover |
| 27/07/24 Club Friendly List | Dover | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 23/01/24 England National League South | Dover | 1-2 HT 1-1 | Tonbridge Angels |
| 15/08/23 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Dover |
| 24/01/23 England National League South | Tonbridge Angels | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Dover |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston Super Mare | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | AFC Totton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Torquay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Maidstone Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dover | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Horsham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Slough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 | Farnham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Dover
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Slough England National League South |
3-0 | 5-3 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Billericay Town England National League South |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Carshalton Ath UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 28/07 | Herne Bay Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 25/07 | Burgess Hill Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Deal Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Littlehampton Town Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Gillingham Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Cray Wanderers Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Margate Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Tonbridge Angels
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Torquay England National League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 9 | L |
| 08/08 | Braintree Town England National League South |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Wingate & Finchley Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Eastbourne Borough UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 4-2 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/07 | Sittingbourne UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Cray Wanderers Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Sutton Utd UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Biggleswade FC UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Torquay England National League South |
0-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Farnborough England National League South |
3-1 | 6-1 | 7 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Dover vs Tonbridge Angels?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tonbridge Angels win (41%). Probabilities: Dover 33%, draw 26%, Tonbridge Angels 41%.
How many goals are expected in Dover vs Tonbridge Angels?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Dover 1.47 · Tonbridge Angels 1.64), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Dover vs Tonbridge Angels?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.