Football · England National League South · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Hemel Hempstead vs Maidenhead Utd
Team pages: Hemel Hempstead · Maidenhead Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.55Total
Hemel Hempstead1.41
Maidenhead Utd1.14
1X2
Hemel Hempstead
Draw
Maidenhead Utd
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Hemel Hempstead
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Maidenhead Utd
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Hemel Hempstead
1–2–3
Maidenhead Utd
(6 last)
- Hemel Hempstead0-0Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd2-2Hemel Hempstead
- Hemel Hempstead2-3Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd4-2Hemel Hempstead
- Hemel Hempstead2-1Maidenhead Utd
- Maidenhead Utd5-0Hemel Hempstead
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hemel Hempstead 1507 · Maidenhead Utd 1441
| Hemel Hempstead | Draw | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hemel Hempstead (rating 1507 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Maidenhead Utd: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Hemel Hempstead | Maidenhead Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 0.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4 | 1.7 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hemel Hempstead 1–2–3 Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 19/08/25 England National League South | Maidenhead Utd | 2-2 HT 2-2 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 20/12/22 England FA Trophy | Hemel Hempstead | 2-3 HT 1-1 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 14/12/19 England FA Trophy | Maidenhead Utd | 4-2 HT 2-1 | Hemel Hempstead |
| 11/02/17 England National League South | Hemel Hempstead | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Maidenhead Utd |
| 16/08/16 England National League South | Maidenhead Utd | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Hemel Hempstead |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weston Super Mare | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Dag & Red | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | AFC Totton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Salisbury FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 5 | Hemel Hempstead | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Truro City | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 7 | Torquay | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 8 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Tonbridge Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Maidstone Utd | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Billericay Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Dover | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| 13 | Farnborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Braintree Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Chelmsford | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Horsham | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 18 | Maidenhead Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 19 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | Slough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 | Farnham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Chesham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hemel Hempstead
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Farnborough England National League South |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Chelmsford England National League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | St Albans UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Kettering Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Hendon Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Wealdstone UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Oxford City Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Barnet Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 07/07 | QPR U23 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 28/04 | Weston Super Mare England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
Maidenhead Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | Truro City England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Brackley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Wimborne Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/07 | Wolverhampton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Southampton U23 Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Holyport Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Milton Keynes Dons UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-4 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 29/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 25/04 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidenhead Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Hemel Hempstead win (42%). Probabilities: Hemel Hempstead 42%, draw 28%, Maidenhead Utd 30%.
How many goals are expected in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model expects 2.55 goals (Hemel Hempstead 1.41 · Maidenhead Utd 1.14), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Hemel Hempstead vs Maidenhead Utd?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.