Football · England National League South · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Chelmsford vs Truro City
Team pages: Chelmsford · Truro City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.63Total
Chelmsford1.3
Truro City1.33
1X2
Chelmsford
Draw
Truro City
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chelmsford
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Truro City
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chelmsford
2–1–3
Truro City
(6 last)
- Chelmsford0-0Truro City
- Truro City2-1Chelmsford
- Truro City1-4Chelmsford
- Chelmsford1-2Truro City
- Truro City0-3Chelmsford
- Chelmsford0-2Truro City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chelmsford 1501 · Truro City 1550
| Chelmsford | Draw | Truro City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Truro City (rating 1501 vs 1550).
- H2H favours Truro City: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chelmsford | Truro City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.9 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 4.4 | 2.9 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.1 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chelmsford 2–1–3 Truro City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/25 England National League South | Chelmsford | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Truro City |
| 31/08/24 England National League South | Truro City | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Chelmsford |
| 09/03/24 England National League South | Truro City | 1-4 HT 1-3 | Chelmsford |
| 25/11/23 England National League South | Chelmsford | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Truro City |
| 23/03/19 England National League South | Truro City | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Chelmsford |
| 17/11/18 England National League South | Chelmsford | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Truro City |
Standings · England National League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salisbury FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Folkestone Invicta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Tonbridge Angels | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Weston Super Mare | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Billericay Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Truro City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Farnborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | AFC Totton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Dag & Red | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Chelmsford | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Hemel Hempstead | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Horsham | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Torquay | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 14 | Ebbsfleet United | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 | Slough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 | Maidstone Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Dorking Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Farnham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Dover | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Maidenhead Utd | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Chesham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 | Walton & Hersham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 23 | Braintree Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 24 | Hampton & Richmond | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chelmsford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Hemel Hempstead England National League South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 01/08 | Spalding United Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Witham Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Canvey Island UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Bishop's Stortford UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | Eastbourne Borough England National League South |
1-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 18/04 | Chesham England National League South |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 14/04 | AFC Hornchurch England National League South |
2-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 06/04 | Dag & Red England National League South |
1-0 | 3-3 | 1 | 8 | D |
Truro City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Maidenhead Utd England National League South |
2-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Plymouth Parkway Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Plymouth UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Exeter UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | Exmouth Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Falmouth Town Club Friendly List |
3-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Aldershot England National League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Carlisle England National League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 11/04 | Boston Utd England National League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 06/04 | Forest Green England National League |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chelmsford vs Truro City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Truro City win (37%). Probabilities: Chelmsford 36%, draw 27%, Truro City 37%.
How many goals are expected in Chelmsford vs Truro City?
The model expects 2.63 goals (Chelmsford 1.3 · Truro City 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Chelmsford vs Truro City?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.